PH growth may slow in Q3 – NSCB

MANILA, Philippines – After posting strong economic growth in the past quarters, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) sees growth slowing in the July to September period this year.

Based on the composite leading economic indicator (LEI), the NSCB said economic growth may slow in the third quarter on account of factors such as slow imports growth, tourism arrivals, and business registrations.

“The LEI slid slightly in third quarter 2012, posting 0.146 from a revised 0.206 in the second quarter of the same year. This indicates a possible slowdown of economic activity in the country for the quarter,” the NSCB said.

Q3 indicators

The positive contributors include terms of trade index which measures the changes in the prices received for exports relative to the prices for imports; electric energy consumption; stock price index; and foreign exchange rate.

The combined share of positive contributors for this quarter largely decreased to 27.8% from 78.9% in the April to June 2012 period.

The negative contributors are led by money supply which refers to the currency in circulation and peso deposits during the period; total merchandise imports; wholesale price index; visitor arrivals; and hotel occupancy rate.

Other growth drags were the number of new businesses and the consumer price index or inflation. The negative contributors accounted for 72.2% of the total.

“(The LEI) was developed jointly by the NSCB and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) to serve as basis for short-term forecasting of the macroeconomic activity in the country,” the NSCB explained.

“(It) provides advance information on the direction of the country’s economic activity or performance in the short run,” it added. – Rappler.com