Asia watchers in US imagine a Trump-Duterte meeting

MANILA, Philippines – How will a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte go?

This has been a scenario that Asia watchers in the US have been imagining out of “morbid curiosity” during the US election campaign. Trump’s victory means this is expected to happen when the Philippines hosts the ASEAN meeting next year, 2017. 

“Among Asia watchers, there is kind of a morbid curiosity in seeing a President Duterte and a President Trump at the next ASEAN summit, just to see how that volatile mixture would play out on television,” said Desmond Walton of US-based consultancy Bower Asia Group in an interview with Rappler executive editor Maria Ressa during Rappler’s special online coverage of the US elections on Wednesday, November 9.

Both Trump and Duterte have been criticized for their undiplomatic candor. Duterte has been dubbed by some as the “Trump of the East.”

Trump accused the Philippines of being a “terrorist nation.” Duterte has not hidden his dislike of the US, the country’s longest treaty ally, which has been the subject of his sustained tirades as he made repeated announcements that he will forge a foreign policy that is indepedent of the US. 

But Duterte only had greetings for Trump when asked to comment on the US elections on Wednesday, while on a trip to Malaysia. “I would like to congratulate President Trump. Mabuhay ka (Long live)! Duterte said.

Blow to Southeast Asia

Walton said the victory of Trump is generally a “blow” to Southeast Asia, where he is expected to have less engagement, even as the South China Sea issue will “remain the most important flashpoint” in the region going forward. 

Walton said Trump is not expected to match outgoing US President Barack Obama’s “level of interest, enthusiasm, and willingness to engage in Southeast Asian issues.”

“I’m afraid a president Trump will simply not prioritize that type of engagement. His advisers… will argue strongly that he has to make time on his schedue to show up [to meetings in the region]. I have a feeling that will be a hard argument to win in the oval office with a President Trump,” Walton said. 

“Over all, probably less engagement with ASEAN,” he said citing Trump’s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Patnership (TPP) championed by Obama. 

Duterte’s war on drugs

Will Trump echo the Obama administration’s concerns about the alleged human rights violations of Duterte’s war on drugs? It remains to be seen. 

“Will there be a strong voice within a Trump administration arguing strongly that values-based diplomacy needs to be an important piece of Trump’s foreign policy? If it is, we’ll have the same pitfalls in front of us,” said Walton. 

But Walton noted that US presidents only have “perhaps 50% discretion” in foreign policy matters.

“It is the role of US Congress that is really important,” he said.

Walton cited how a senator vowed to block the sale of assault rifles to the Philippine police force over the alleged extra-judicial killings because of Duterte’s war on drugs. The threat prompted Duterte to order the cancellation of the purchase before the request to purchase is forwarded to US Congress, a necessary step when US firms are selling weapons to foreign entities. 

“Those are the types of things that an activist Congress can assert themselves in and they are very impactful on our bilateral relationsips,” he said. 

Walton said veteran diplomats in the US under the Obama administration have figured the “correct approach” to Duterte: “To simply absorb some of President Duterte’s rhetoric, and not overreact. Instead, wait to see what concrete actions he takes.”

“Make no mistake. People are not happy with some of Duterte’s rhetorics, but at the same time we are not reacting with great emotion in Washington,” Walton said. 

He said Washington welcomed new developments where the Philippines decided to continue military cooperation activities with the US even as they have been reduced. (READ: PH, US war games to continue; EDCA will be implemented) – Rappler.com