Grace Poe up, Cynthia Villar down in survey

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The senatorial race is bound to get tighter, with changes in survey rankings right before the campaign period.

A January 17 to 19 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed former Movie and Television Review and Classification Board (MTRCB) chairperson Grace Poe-Llamanzares jumping from rank 20 in December 2012 to rank 10-11.

The survey results were published on SWS’ media partner, Business World (BW), on its Monday, January 28 edition.

“The surprise in the survey was Grace [Poe-Llamanzares] who, after not ranking higher than 20^th in the last two SWS-BW polls, barged into contention,” the article said. 

Poe-Llamanzares is a common candidate of the ruling Liberal Party (LP), and the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). She is the daughter of the late actor and presidential candidate Fernando Poe Jr. Watch this Rappler profile: 

The SWS survey was released before the start of the campaign period for national candidates on February 12.

While Poe was the big winner in the polls, former Las Piñas Rep Cynthia Villar was the biggest loser in the latest survey, dropping 5 percentage points. From 4^th place in December, Villar dropped to 8^th-9^th in January.

Villar is a candidate of the Nacionalista Party (NP) of her husband Sen Manny Villar. She is running under the administration slate.

SWS-BW said, “Tied for 8th to 9th places were former Las Piñas representative Cynthia A. Villar (NP-LP) and Cagayan Rep. Juan Ponce “Jack” Enrile, Jr. (NPC-UNA) with 46% each. Both registered declines from the last poll: Ms. Villar was 4th in December while Mr. Enrile was 6th-7th.”

(Editor’s note: A closer look at the data shows Enrile’s voter preference remained steady at 46%.)

But Villar is unfazed. “If you were to consider the survey’s margin of error, plus or minus three, then those of us wo ranked from the 5th to the 11th place in the survey with 45% to 48% would seem like in a seven-way tie,” she said in a statement.

Watch this Rappler interview with Enrile and read his profile here:

 

“The ruling LP alliance and the opposition UNA all but evenly split the list of likely ‘Magic 12’ winners with their own and shared candidates, although the latter had the edge in terms of rankings,” SWS-BW said.

The survey was conducted using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents. The error margins are ±3% for national and ±6 for area percentages.

Reelectionists, political children still top

Sen Loren Legarda still dominated the survey, along with her fellow reelectionists. Legarda ranked number one while Sen Francis Escudero placed second.

Like Poe, the two are common candidates of LP and UNA.

In third place is Senate Minority Leader Alan Peter Cayetano of the administration slate. He is secretary-general of Sen Villar’s NP. Cayetano last week figured in an ugly squabble with Senate President Enrile over the use of Senate funds. 

Coming after him in 4^th place is San Juan Rep Joseph Victor “JV” Ejercito Estrada, son of former President Joseph Estrada. He rose from rank 5 in December.

Sen Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan was at 5^th-6^th place with Sen Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III. 

Rivals Pimentel and resigned Sen Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri both saw an increase in their survey rankings.

From 6^th to 7^th in December, Pimentel is now on 5^th-6^th place. Zubiri also climbed from 9^th to 10^th last month to 7^th place.

Rounding up the top 12 are Villar, Enrile, Sen Antonio Trillanes IV (10^th to 11^th), Poe, and Nancy Binay (12^th).

Yet SWS said the administration’s Aurora Rep Juan Edgardo “Sonny” Angara at rank 13^th could still vie for the 12^th slot. Angara’s ranking remained unchanged at 13.

Former senators, newbies outside magic 12

Outside of the so-called Magic 12 in the latest survey is UNA bet former Sen Richard “Dick” Gordon who slid to rank 14 from 12^th place in December.

President Benigno Aquino III’s cousin, Bam Aquino, went up to rank 15 from 17^th place. He is running under the LP ticket. 

In 16^th place is former Sen Ramon “Jun” Magsaysay Jr followed by another former senator, Jamby Madrigal at 17^th place. The two are LP members.

The LP’s former Akbayan Rep Risa Hontiveros is at rank 18^th to 19^th, tied with former Sen Ernesto “Ernie” Maceda of UNA.

At 20^th place is Aquino’s aunt, former Tarlac Gov Margarita “Tingting” Cojuangco of UNA.

Here are the rest of the results:

Getting to know sons, daughters?  

The survey comes as candidates gear up for the campaign period. Even ahead of the official start of campaigning, the senatorial bets have aired advertisements and launched sorties in various provinces.

UNA already aired its senatorial slate ad starting January 7 while the LP also shot its own ad. UNA is also regularly conducting sorties, starting off with Batangas, Cagayan, and Laguna.

During the sorties, candidates introduce themselves and their platforms to voters.

The SWS survey shows that while political children like Enrile and Binay initially placed high, they have registered a decline over time.

The poll also comes as the LP and the UNA intensify their word war. LP has questioned whether UNA is really for or against the administration. UNA calls itself the “constructive opposition.”

UNA also attacked LP for alleged “political persecution” of non-LP leaders like its member suspended Cebu Governor Gwendolyn “Gwen” Garcia.  

President Aquino also joined the fray. He criticized UNA in a Cebu LP event earlier this month, saying it aired ads early because it has “more to prove.” – Rappler.com

 

The Reelectionists:

• Gregorio ‘Gringo’ Honasan II: ‘Unfinished business’
• Lorna Regina ‘Loren’ Legarda : ‘Changing climate, not parties’
• Aquilino Martin ‘Koko’ Pimentel III: ‘It’s complicated’
• Francis Joseph ‘Chiz’ Escudero: Why choose between Noy-Bi?
• Alan Peter Cayetano: Everybody’s critic
• Antonio ‘Sonny’ Trillanes IV: ‘I’m no coward’

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Other profiles in our running series on senatorial candidates:

• Nancy Binay: The accidental candidate
• Risa Hontiveros: Senate win like RH bill passage – uphill but possible
• Bam Aquino: What can a 6th Aquino bring to the Senate?
• Ernesto Maceda: ‘Voters miss brilliant senators’
• Can Jack Enrile bury the past?
• This time, Migz Zubiri wants untainted victory 

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More from Rappler’s 2013 Philippine elections coverage:

• Mother Lily, actors endorse Grace Poe
• Grace Poe and Chiz: Campaign partners
• Binay, Villar break into top 3 – SWS