The Scrum: What election surveys are telling us

Chay F. Hofileña

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The Scrum: What election surveys are telling us
'The one who will win must fire our imagination and inspire us to dream again, break us free from destructive cynicism, jadedness, and despair'

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rappler presents “The Scrum,” our take on issues and personalities of the 2016 elections. Derived from a media term that refers to reporters surrounding politicians to press them to answer questions and respond candidly, “The Scrum” hopes to spark smart conversations on politics and elections. 

The much-awaited June survey results from major polling outfits Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations were finally released this past week. They confirmed what many expected: that Senator Grace Poe would continue to rise and Vice President Jojo Binay would spiral downwards some more. Let’s see how his cutting ties with the administration will affect his numbers in the next survey. 

One bit of a surprise was Interior Secretary Mar Roxas’ double-digit rise from his previous 4% presidential preference rating. How did that happen, many were left wondering. After all, it’s common knowledge that his rather bland, aloof, and technocrat mien is the biggest barrier to a rapid rise in his popularity. 

Statistician Jose Ramon Albert however carefully points out that given the ±3% margin of error in the survey, the change in Roxas’ ratings “may or may not be real” and may still be on the boundary. For the change to be truly significant, he said Roxas’ increase should be greater than 6 percentage points.

If only Roxas had the ability to just turn on that switch that would connect him instantaneously to the common man, or even that lowly barangay captain or town mayor, half of the Liberal Party leadership’s headache would probably go away. After all, unlike Binay, Roxas has no corruption issues.

Unfortunately, that switch is non-operational. Many of his close friends who know him very well know it’s a given and it’s something they can’t change. He doesn’t have the common man’s touch. It’s part of the DNA and the Roxas package and any attempt to alter it will come off as artificial and manufactured.

A look at the surveys shows that Roxas continues to do poorly among the poorest sectors. A year ago, Roxas rated 6% among class E and slightly better with class D at 8% in the Pulse Asia June 2014 survey. This rose a hundred percent to 12% for class E and slightly better at 10% for class D in the June 2015 survey. 

Pulse Asia Survey Period

Classes

Roxas

Binay

Poe

June-July 2014

ABC

7%

36%

7%

 

D

8%

42%

12%

 

E

6%

40%

14%

 

June 2015

 

ABC

 

9%

 

29%

 

31%

 

D

10%

20%

31%

 

E

12%

26%

25%

How did Binay fare? In the same June-July 2014 survey, Binay was preferred by an overwhelming 40% among the poorest sector or class E, and an even higher 42% by class D. But these numbers slid to 26% for class E and 20% for class D. Compared to Roxas, Binay remains to be the preferred candidate of the poor – at least as of June 2015. Cognizant of the drop, Binay said the latest survey results were a “wake-up call.”

Grace Poe

The numbers tell a different story, however, when Grace Poe is included in the picture. Until March 2015, Binay was undoubtedly the most popular among poor respondents. By June 2015, the tide shifted dramatically in favor of Poe among class D respondents – she obtained a 31% preferential rating compared to Binay’s 20%. Given the survey’s margin of error, she almost tied Binay’s 26% with her 25% among class E. She also tied, if not slightly edged out, Binay among the ABC classes who are better off, with her 31% compared to Binay’s 29%.

Clearly the numbers mirror greater public sympathy for Poe after the Binay camp’s offensives against her. The challenges to her citizenship, residency, and competence appear to have backfired, and instead gave her a platform to gain sympathy and attention. She responded very well to the attacks and even thanked UNA interim president Toby Tiangco for them.

Taking on the issue of her being unqualified to run for president or vice president because her being a natural born citizen is not firmly established, Poe said: “I don’t think you should discriminate based on the circumstance of birth. Especially when it’s so ridiculous to assume that the child is a foreigner, born in the province, in Iloilo no less, and with physical attributes that are obviously Filipino.”

It’s easy to imagine how she could turn around the attack on her being a foundling, and ask her voters or even an entire nation to adopt her as their own. Being the adopted daughter of actor Fernando Poe Jr and actress Susan Roces, Grace Poe seems to have an intuitive grasp of what will connect with the public in terms of message. If not acquired throught DNA, it’s probably by osmosis.

To Roxas supporters, what he has going for him is the probable support of the President (we’ll know that for sure after his last State of the Nation Address in July). To pollsters, however, that’s debatable and may be a false source of optimism. It may add a few votes but will not determine victory at the polls. Past presidential elections are replete with examples of this.

Courting the poor

Then there is Davao City’s Rody Duterte, who was included in the Pulse survey only last March. Among ABC, he scored 21%, very close to Binay’s 22%. Among the class D respondents, he got 11% and 10% among class E. In the June survey, he dropped to 13% among the ABC, but became more popular among the D and E, getting 17% and 14%, respectively.

It is common knowledge that there seems to be mutual respect between Duterte and Roxas. Across classes, there is wider support for Duterte than Roxas. The big question in many minds is, where will those for Duterte go if the Davao mayor decides not to run? Will they end up supporting Roxas, Poe, or Binay? Who will be the Mindanaoans next choice?

Pollsters are doing, or have probably completed by now, further probes on the survey data. Unfortunately, they are not sharing the information with the media so only subscribers and campaign strategists will know. But what should be the takeaway from the numbers at this point in time?

1. The poor are not blind to corruption issues even as they continue to aspire for a better life. This is apparent in the Binay and Roxas numbers.

2. The poor want a sense of security and a degree of bull-headedness, which they probably see in Duterte.

3. They prefer a candidate who they can identify, and share a narrative, with. Poe, the foundling, who is being deprived of a shot at the presidency because of the circumstances of her birth, is one of them.

4. Competence or the ability to deliver services that will change the quality of their lives, not being corrupt, and empathy should go hand in hand.

In 2010, Aquino became president not because he really wanted it but because Filipinos got reminded of the promise of EDSA. Cory Aquino may have had her failures as president, but she remained the icon of what could have been, post-Marcos. And her son was a symbol of that interrupted continuity.

Campaign strategists say that Filipino voters tend to choose the antithesis of the previous president in selecting their new one. This is why, in 2010, Aquino, the perceived opposite of the corruption-tainted Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, was the hands-down winner.

In 2016, the one who will win must want the presidency with a passion – unlike Aquino. The one who will win must be more decisive, demonstrate more competence, have a clearer vision of where the poor should be, and must be able to take them there, no matter what.

The one who will win must fire our imagination and inspire us to dream again, break us free from destructive cynicism, jadedness, and despair. – with research by Reynaldo Santos Jr/Rappler.com

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Chay F. Hofileña

Chay Hofileña is editor of Rappler's investigative and in-depth section, Newsbreak. Among Rappler’s senior founders and editors, she is also in charge of training. She obtained her graduate degree from Columbia University’s School of Journalism in New York.