MANILA, Philippines – It’s all even-steven at this point. 

Top of mind candidates for president who filed their certificates of candidacy (COCs) – Senator Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar Binay, former interior secretary Manuel Roxas II, Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, and maybe Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte – all still have equal chances of winning in 2016.

It was only on October 13 that the feisty senator – who claims her Stage 4 lung cancer is under control – announced she too is running for president. Prior to that announcement, her numbers were at single digit (see table below) after voters no longer regarded her as a serious contender on account of her health condition.

Latest survey numbers for May/June and September 2015 from polling firm Pulse Asia indicate the following ratings for the 5 presumed or possible presidential candidates. Duterte himself still has until December 10 to make a final decision, following substitution rules of the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Clearly, the differences – especially among the 4 top contenders – are anything but insurmountable, given that the May 2016 elections are a distant 7 months away, and the September survey has a margin of error of ±2%.

Anything can happen, missteps can spell a whole world of difference, and seeming laggard candidates can very quickly seize the lead in even just a few months’ time.

No less than President Benigno Aquino III knows this as he saw how in January 2010 – just after the Christmas break – then senator Manny Villar caught up with him and narrowed the margin. From December 2009 to January 2010, then candidate Aquino slid by 8% (from 45% to 37%), while Villar climbed up by 12% (from 23% to 35%).

Unused to a back-breaking campaign, Aquino was tired and decided to take a costly rest. Fortunately for him, he was able to recover and eventually win the 2010 presidential election.

Trends

The latest Pulse Asia survey results are remarkable for 4 things:

1. It is only Roxas who has made a noticeable improvement from the previous May-June survey (from 10%-20%)
2. Binay has maintained his core of supporters at 20%
3. Santiago’s numbers, after her October announcement, could yet change dramatically
4. Despite all the confusing messages about seeking the presidency, Duterte’s numbers have barely moved, as if supporters disbelieve his ever-shifting pronouncements about not wanting to be president

On Monday, October 12, Duterte announced for the nth time that he was not running for president. On October 16, the last day for filing of COCs, he filed his candidacy for mayor. But just a few days ago, he again hinted at a possible substitution for PDP-Laban’s presidential bet.

The “Duterteserye,” as referred to by the media, hopes to see a final conclusion by December 10, going by Comelec rules. 

Taking a long view by looking at numbers from more than a year ago (March 2014) when Pulse Asia first did its presidential preference survey, and factoring in margins of error, it’s Roxas who has gained the most. But this is also because his numbers were extremely low back then, remaining at mostly single digits, except for two survey periods excluding the latest one. (Editor’s Note: We decided to focus on Pulse Asia only for consistency of survey result comparisons.)

From single digit 6 percentage points in March 2014, Roxas steadily improved, his biggest jump happening in May-June 2015 when he was endorsed by President Benigno Aquino III.

Conversely, it’s Binay who has lost the most, starting with an impressive 40% in March 2014 and ending with 19%.

Binay has been on a downward trajectory from June-July 2014, except for an upward bump in March 2015 when he also topped everyone else and was described as “significantly ahead.” At that time, the administration was reeling from the effects of the botched Mamasapano operations that resulted in the death of 67 people, including 44 Special Action Force troopers.

He lost 10 percentage points from that period all the way to the September 2015 poll. But going by the Aquino-Villar experience of 2010, this decline remains inconclusive.

On the part of Poe, her steepest rise happened in the May 30-June 5, 2015 survey when she obtained a 30% rating, up from her previous 14%. Among others, she seemed to have benefited from the exchange with Binay over her supposed inexperience, the disqualification issue first raised against her then, and the meeting with Aquino about the possibility of her running under the Liberal Party either as president or vice president. She dropped to 26% in September 2015, however, after airing her position on the Iglesia ni Cristo rally in August.

Santiago started out strong with double digits in the very first March 2014 survey, ranking third, next to Binay and Poe. She announced she had cancer in July 2014 but this did not affect her numbers, which even increased in the succeeding survey periods. Like Binay, her decline started in 2015.

Looking ahead

The last survey of the year is expected to be conducted end-November or early December. Presidential candidates will either have a restful or tiring Christmas season as last survey results for 2015 will be known before the Christmas break.

By next year, political camps may be having surveys done more regularly, as frequent as monthly or perhaps even weekly, as the May 2016 elections near.

In the last presidential election, corruption was an issue that resonated the most with the voters. It was a strong reaction to persistent perceptions of how widespread corruption was in the administration of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

In the coming presidential elections, however, corruption has dropped in importance, survey results indicate. In early September, campaign insiders said, “unemployment” topped “corruption at the national government” in terms of problems that need to be addressed or solved. Also high up were the following issues: poverty, wages, education, health, prices and inflation, disaster response, and peace in Mindanao.

The line-up of presidential candidates seems to be pretty much firmed up, with Duterte being the only one left still playing the guessing game.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, who filed his candidacy for reelection as mayor, may yet change his mind, too. When he trooped to the Comelec on October 14 to file his certificate of candidacy, Estrada declared he would run for president in 2016 if both the bets he is willing to support – Binay and Poe – are disqualified. The Vice President faces graft charges over alleged irregularities in the construction of a supposedly overpriced Makati carpark building, while Poe is threatened with disqualification because of citizenship issues.

Estrada’s own party, Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, however, did not field a presidential candidate who could be his placeholder, a check with the Comelec showed.

Campaign insiders, who are privy to detailed survey results not disclosed to the media, said that if Duterte does not run for president, the main beneficiary would be Poe, followed in equal measure by Binay and Roxas. This scenario included Santiago, Estrada, former senator Richard Gordon, and even Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr as still part of the picture of possible presidential hopefuls.

Recent developments are expected to still keep everyone guessing. Campaign analysts foresee that in the next survey, Santiago will eat into the bailiwick of Roxas, the Visayas. If Duterte runs, he will divide the Mindanao voters who prefer almost equally either Poe, Binay or Roxas, given the survey’s ±2% margin of error. For sure, pollsters will have their hands full all the way to May 2016.

As one campaign insider, who has been part of previous presidential campaigns, puts it, “I’ve never seen an election this close.” – with Michael Bueza/Rappler.com