MANILA, Philippines – Behind any presidential candidate is a known bailiwick that can be counted on to deliver the votes.

These places can be where the candidate’s family traces its roots, an “adopted” hometown, or an area which the candidate or family members used to govern.

For Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, it is Davao.

Aside from being Davao City mayor for almost 7 terms, Duterte has held several positions including vice mayor for two terms and First District representative for one term. His children – Paolo and Sara Duterte Carpio – are also visible in the local government scene.

But there have been claims that the entire Mindanao, not just Davao, backs Duterte’s candidacy. (READ: Rody Duterte: Unorthodox game changer)

How true is this? 

There are a total of 27 provinces scattered across 6 regions in Mindanao: Region IX (Zamboanga Peninsula), Region X (Northern Mindanao), Region XI (Davao Region), Region XII (SOCCSKSARGEN), CARAGA, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). 

Can Mindanao voters propel Duterte to the presidency? Here is some information about the region’s voters:

1. Mindanao voters make up 23% of the Philippine voting population.

As of the October 2013 barangay elections, there were 12,341,224 registered voters in Mindanao. This is 23% of the total 53,664,120 voters in the Philippines.

Regions in Mindanao rank in the lower half of all regions in the country based on the number of registered voters.

Region XI, meanwhile, has the most number of voters in Mindanao – 2,778,719 – based on data from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

Interestingly, the most vote-rich region in Mindanao also has the lowest poverty incidence. The Philippine Statistics Authority reported in 2012 that Region XI had a 25% poverty incidence.

ARMM, a Mindanao region with 1,557,865 voters, is one of the poorest regions in the country with a 48.7%-poverty incidence. Two provinces in this region, Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur, were identified as election watch list areas (EWA) by the Philippine National Police.

A huge chunk of the voters – a total of 1,549,723 – are in Davao del Sur, a province under Region XI. Zamboanga del Norte in Region IX is second with 1,020,659 voters.

The top 5 vote-rich Mindanao provinces are: 

 2. Voting population is more active in national than barangay elections.

In the 2013 barangay elections, the voter turnout in Mindanao was 70.69%, equivalent to 8,723,706 voters.

The regions, meanwhile, had a varied turnout with CARAGA leading at 78.3%.

Except for CARAGA, Mindanao regions are in the lower half ranks based on the voter turnout among all Philippine regions. ARMM, with a 62.39% voter turnout, placed 2^nd to the last.

If you compare the two elections in 2013, Comelec data show that there are more people in Mindanao who voted in the national and local elections (NLE) than in the barangay elections

A total of 9,180,308 actually voted out of the number of registered voters in Mindanao regions – 76.51% of 11,999,081.

3. In past elections, Mindanao supported mostly administration and LP candidates, except those vying for president and vice president.

As in previous elections, in 2013, coalitions were formed among some political parties, which shared common senatorial slates.

The administration’s senatorial slate, called Team PNoy, fielded candidates mainly from the Liberal Party (LP) and the Nacionalista Party (NP) in 2013.

In Mindanao, 8 of the 12 senators who garnered the most number of votes were from Team PNoy. The other 3 were from the opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). 

UNA candidate Nancy Binay, daughter of Vice President Jejomar Binay, placed second in Mindanao with 3,510,303 votes, next to topnotcher Grace Poe’s 3,818,043.

This seeming administration bias can also be seen in provincial government positions in Mindanao even if there are no political alliances at the local level.

Out of 302 elected positions, administration candidates took 125 slots or 41%.

NP and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) had 46 and 48 elected members, respectively.

But in 2010, LP presidential and vice presidential candidates did not win in Mindanao.

Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP)’s Joseph Estrada won against LP’s Benigno Aquino III by more than 300,000 votes in Mindanao. Aquino enjoyed a 1.3 million lead against Senator Manny Villar of NP.

Then Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, who ran for vice president in 2010 under the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban (PDP-Laban), won in Mindanao, edging out LP’s Mar Roxas by almost 500,000 votes.

Like his running mate, Roxas also enjoyed a 1.3 million lead over NPC candidate Senator Loren Legarda.

Will the LP finally win a majority of the votes in Mindanao in 2016? Or will PDP-Laban once again show its power in Mindanao, this time through Duterte?  

4. Mindanao is for Duterte based on pre-election surveys in 2015.

Results of pre-election surveys done throughout 2015 suggest that Mindanao is pro-Duterte. Such results, however, are not enough to dislodge Poe as the current front-runner among presidential aspirants, based on voters’ preference polls.

The results of surveys conducted by Pulse Asia Research Incorporated in the last 3 quarters of the year showed Duterte slipping to 29% in the third quarter survey conducted in September, from 37% in the second quarter.

The same can be said about Binay, whose voters’ preference fell to 17% in the third quarter survey.

Poe slowly climbed the charts to 20% from 11% in the first quarter. Meanwhile,  Roxas obtained a 15% voters’ preference – a jump from the previous quarter’s 8%. (READ: Poe leads poll; Roxas takes Visayas; Duterte, Mindanao)

The Mindanao results of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) surveys in 2015 indicate that those in favor of Duterte have increased.

Duterte topped an SWS survey commissioned by a Davao businessman, conducted in late November. In Mindanao, he was preferred by 37% of voters in November, from 34% in the first quarter. Poe, Binay, Roxas, and Miriam Defensor-Santiago all obtained less than 20% in Mindanao.

His popularity cannot be denied as some LP allies have abandoned the ruling party to support the “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for Mindanao to be represented through Duterte. (READ: LP allies in Mindanao jump ship to support Duterte)

However, those who remained with the administration standard-bearer said that Mindanao is “hungry for development, not entertainment” and that their support for Roxas remains firm. (READ: Mar or Rody? Mindanao not hungry for entertainment, say LP allies)

With at least 5 months before the May 2016 elections, and various issues clouding the race to the presidency, the atmosphere and sentiment of Mindanao voters could still change. But would they? – Rappler.com