MANILA, Philippines – Though not yet at the number one spot in 2016 election surveys, Rodrigo Duterte’s ratings have been steadily climbing the percentage ladder.

In the latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted from December 4-11, 2015, the Davao City mayor is now at second place, tied with former leading contender Senator Grace Poe. In previous surveys, he had been straddling either 3rd or 4th place. 

But both Duterte and Poe now trail behind new poll first-placer Vice President Jejomar Binay.

In the latest poll, Duterte garnered a rating of 23%, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to his rating in the September 8-14, 2015 Pulse Asia poll (16%) – his biggest jump in ratings so far. 

Here’s a look at how his Pulse Asia survey ratings have changed:

In the time between the two latest surveys were conducted, what was Duterte up to? 

The months between the September and December polls were a period of upheaval and transition for Duterte’s camp. Duterte had not announced his intention to run for president until November 21. 

Other candidates had already been diligently visiting different parts of the country, specifically to campaign.

But Duterte wasn’t sitting pretty either. Those months saw him making repeated visits to Luzon, especially Metro Manila. He also visited the Visayas and parts of Mindanao outside Davao City. 

His numbers have so far survived public criticism of his potshots at Pope Francis, condemnation from women’s rights groups for his womanizing, and his former repeated statements that he would not run for president.

But the period between September and December also saw the surfacing of other issues that may have affected his rating.  

Public disapproval with the Aquino administration ripened because of the tanim-bala scandal (alleged bullet-planting scam in Philippine airports).

Duterte too was outspoken about the issue, even volunteering to lawyer for tanim-bala victims and making a public appeal to President Aquino to solve the problem.

Also during this time, Poe’s presidential bid was put on rocky ground due to her citizenship issues, a series of events heavily covered by the media. 

National Capital Region ratings

Rest of Luzon ratings

Visayas ratings

Mindanao ratings

September to December trail 

So from September to December, where was Duterte and what was he doing?

A day before the September poll was conducted, Duterte had announced categorically in a press conference in Davao City that he would not run for president. 

Yet the survey results still showed an increase in his rating by one percentage point compared to the survey conducted from May 30-June 5, 2015 – from 15% to 16%.

Click or hover over the number to read about Duterte’s visits. Note that the events are labeled in chronological order.

In the month of September, despite this announcement, Duterte visited Metro Manila to promote federalism, a form of government that gives more power and independence to local government units.

On September 8, he spoke about federalism to students and residents of Navotas and Malabon.

On September 10, he was interviewed by TV5 journalists on national television where he hinted that his decision not to run was not yet final.

For the rest of the month until early October, Duterte had to focus on his own backyard. He was either in Davao City or Zamboanga City to help deal with the kidnapping of 3 foreigners and a Filipina from a Samal Island resort.  

September was also the month when killings and harassments of indigenous peoples or Lumad in Mindanao came to a head. Hundreds of Lumad sought refuge in Davao City. 

But on September 26, Duterte sent a text message to his supporters gathered in Luneta that he would do a “final soul-searching” to decide once and for all his 2016 plans. 

Three days later, Senator Alan Peter Cayetano began his “courtship” of Duterte, his dream running mate, when he declared his vice-presidential bid in Davao City, Duterte’s hometown. 

Fast forward to October 12 when Duterte said the outcome of his “soul-searching” is his decision not to run for president.

True enough, he did not file his candidacy for president in the Commission of Elections (Comelec) headquarters in Manila from October 12 to 16.

Then, on November 3, Duterte was in Compostela Valley where New People’s Army (NPA) rebels released prisoners-of-war to him.

The week after, on November 9, the still-hopeful Alan Peter Cayetano invited Duterte to his birthday party in his Taguig City home. Duterte showed up but appeared unconvinced about seeking the presidency. 

On November 11, two days after the party, Duterte spoke at a sporting arms show in SM Megamall in Mandaluyong City. He is a known gun enthusiast.

In two weeks, Duterte was in Iloilo City on November 21 to give a speech at a medical association event. On the same day, he and Cayetano attended a party in Cavite where Duterte finally announced his intention to run for president.

On November 23, Duterte was again in Metro Manila, this time to attend the opening ceremony of a Japanese restaurant owned by his friend.

At the end of that week, on November 27, he was in Alabel, Sarangani province in Mindanao to attend the Munato Festival.

Two days after, he was back in Metro Manila to attend a concert of his and Cayetano’s supporters in Taguig City. He bared the details of his “womanizing” to the thousands of concert-goers.

The next day, he was formally declared the presidential candidate of political party PDP-Laban in a Manila hotel. At the event, he “unintentionally” cursed the Pope in a speech prompting a deluge of public criticism.

On December 1, he spoke in front of employees of a logistics service company in Pasay City. He remained unapologetic about bad-mouthing the pontiff.

On December 4, back in Davao City, he visited an archbishop and bishop to be “admonished and lectured on Christian values.” He promised to “lessen” his use of cuss words.

On December 8, now facing petitions asking the Comelec to disqualify him from running because of errors in the election documents of the candidate he replaced, he was at the Comelec office in Manila to “reaffirm” his presidential bid.

During the Christmas holiday, he reportedly took some time off to vacation with his family. The day before Christmas, however, he made an “unplanned visit” to Caluya, Antique, to speak in front of locals who work for the Consunji-owned Semirara Power Corporation, which runs an open-pit coal mine in the island.

Strengths: Mindanao vote, upper and middle class

Based on election surveys so far, Duterte’s strength is the Mindanao vote. He is consistently the top pick of most Mindanaoan respondents. In the December Pulse Asia poll, Binay topped all regions but lost Mindanao to Duterte.

Duterte is weakest in the Luzon regions outside Mega Manila. As for voters according to economic class, Duterte is strong with the more affluent (economic classes A, B, and C) but weak among the poorest voters (class E).

Though now in second place, Duterte has a long way to go if he hopes to catch up with Binay.

The vice president garnered a rating of 33% in the latest survey compared to Duterte’s 23%, a difference of 10 percentage points.

There is also no official announcement from the Comelec on whether Duterte can run for president after receiving petitions demanding Duterte’s disqualification.

Will Duterte continue to enjoy the loyalty of his upper- and middle-class supporters? Can he attract more votes in Luzon and the Visayas? Can he depend on Mindanaoans to elect him to power? Can he get the poorest Filipinos to vote for him in May?

The events of the next few months will tell. – data visualization by Nico Villarete/Rappler.com

Sources: Office of Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Office of Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, various news reports