NBA Season Preview: Denver Nuggets

Last season: 30-52, 12th seed in the West

This season (projected): 28-54, 13th seed in the West

MANILA, Philippines – The Denver Nuggets’ 2014-2015 NBA season was as disappointing as possible. Expected to compete for one of the lower seeds in the ultra-competitive Western Conference playoff race, Denver flamed out towards the end of the year and instead fired their head coach Brian Shaw; traded key guys in Aaron Afflalo and Timofey Mozgov; and kick-started a rebuilding phase.

Under interim head coach Melvin Hunt, Denver at the least played at a more exciting pace, though continued to pile up the losses on their record. Nonetheless, all those defeats came in handy as it gave the team the opportunity to draft their new franchise point guard before eventually trading their former one.

The upcoming NBA season represents a new era for the Nuggets, with a new head coach in Mike Malone and a 19-year-old rookie being given the keys to the offense. The question is, will success come instantly?

Reasons to be excited

Emmanuel Mudiay has arrived

Here’s how much I like Emmanuel Mudiay: I would have taken him over Los Angeles Lakers point guard, D’Angelo Russell, in the 2015 NBA Draft. Russell went second overall. Mudiay went seventh.

It’s obvious Mudiay’s shot needs work – a trait common among many rookies who enter the league. But other than that, there’s not many blimps in the Congo native’s resume.

He already has an NBA-ready physique. His toned upper body makes him tough to contain as he drives to the rim, practically guaranteeing that he will get many free throw attempts already early in his career.

His vision, as displayed during the NBA summer league, is already excellent. He’s a maestro when it comes to scanning the floor off pick-and-rolls and instantly finding the open cutter or shooter. He can finish at the rim, and he has a few nifty floaters that he brought out once in a while when deterred by a big man – something that will make him a productive scorer, and help him avoid injuries.

On the other end of the floor, he’s already a fierce defender. That huge upper body allows him to bother opposing ball handlers, and his quickness will let him easily go over the screener on pick-and-rolls. 

At 6-foot-5 and 200 pounds – mostly muscle – he can guard almost any point guard and also help contain some shooting guards. That 6-foot-8 and a half wingspan will definitely annoy his opponents, and help him compile a number of steals.

 

But most of all, he’s a fierce competitor. The guy just doesn’t quit, and his fighter mentality is always apparent when he plays – something the guy whose job he’s taking had an issue displaying most of the time. 

Experience is also a plus with Mudiay. He didn’t go the traditional route of playing in the NCAA after high school, opting to instead play for the Guangdong Souther Tigers in the Chinese Basketball Association, where he signed a one-year, $1.2 million contract.

He played just 10 regular season games and two playoff games for the Tigers as he battled an ankle injury. Overall, his averages were impressive for a kid his age: 18 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.6 steals a game.

Obviously, Ty Lawson’s off-the-court issues – most notably his repetitive DUI mishaps – were the biggest factor in the Nuggets deciding to trade him to the Rockets. But the arrival of Mudiay also played a major role in that deal eventually going down.

“I have high expectations for him because he’s basically going to be our starting point guard and the Nuggets have high expectations,” Kenneth Faried said about Mudiay to the Philippine media when he was in the country in August. 

“I just want to make sure he’s coached – that’s the only thing I want to make sure. I’m pretty sure he is and everybody says he is so I’m excited to see what happens.”

So am I, the Nuggets organization, and a legion of NBA fans.

“He’s the real deal,” says Nuggets GM Tim Connelly.

Healthy Galo

When free of injuries or any lingering effects from them, 27-year-old Italian Danilo Gallinari is one of the most fun players to watch in the NBA. 

He’s uncoordinated at times and looks awkward when handling the ball, but still manages to get to the rim for clumsy-looking layups. When he doesn’t do that, he usually pulls up for jumpers. Sometimes, they’re inefficient midrange attempts, but the open ones he takes go through the net more often than not.

Gallinari had a tough time bouncing back early last NBA season from a torn ACL injury that kept him out the entire Nuggets 2013-2014 campaign, but after the All-Star break, his numbers were outstanding: 19 points on 44% shooting from the floor, including a 40% clip from long range. 

At 6-foot-10 and with the ability to take defenders off the dribble, he’s the prototypical stretch 4 on small-ball lineups for the offensive side of the floor. His defense needs work, but what he displays on the other end makes up for his deficiencies there.

Denver signed him to a two-year, $34 million extension this past offseason. Gallinari is in his prime years, though that’s a contract not usually given by a rebuilding team. Nonetheless, the Nuggets are hoping their slab of young talent, and some draft picks, will eventually help them land a star through trade if they don’t draft one – think how the Houston Rockets picked up James Harden in 2012.

When, or if, that time comes, Gallinari will be a great second or third option. Until then, it will be interesting to see how he does as a focal point of the offense. 

A fresh start in a new era

Mike Malone’s coaching resume doesn’t jump off the page, but that’s only if you take into account his record, which doesn’t really exhibit how valuable he can be.

He went 39-67 overall coaching the Sacramento Kings the past two season before getting unceremoniously fired – a move that right now looks like one of the franchise’s huge mishaps.

Why’s that? Malone was the coach who best reached to Sacramento’s star player, DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings were actually off to a good start last NBA season, winning 5 of their first 6 games and 9 of their first 15 before Cousins had to miss a few weeks due to a bout with viral meningitis. His absence was prominent, with Sacramento eventually falling to 11-13 before firing Malone.

“When people ask DeMarcus about me, I think the thing he respected about me was that I was always honest. If you’re dishonest, you’re done. You’re out. I never tired to B.S. him. It was real. If he messed up, I got on him. If he did good things, I praised him. I believed in him,” Malone told Grantland back in July.

Malone now takes that approach to Denver, where the franchise’s players quit on Shaw before he was fired in March. He goes to the Mile High City expecting the team to do more defending and running, establish some more versatility, and start a new culture.

“I went in there (Sacramento) with a clean slate, and I didn’t hold anything against him (Cousins). I’m doing the same thing in Denver. Whatever happened before I got there was not on my watch. This is a change for me to come and change that culture.”

Reasons for concern

Not enough to compete on most nights

There’s plenty reasons to be excited for the years to come for Denver, but in terms of the foreseeable future, quite a number of losses are still in store.

As much ready as Mudiay is for the pros, he’s still a rookie and playing a position that’s the deepest right now in the NBA, which means there will still be a transition process. He’s also out west, which means many nights facing Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, and even Lawson. 

Faried, after signing a 4-year, $50 million extension in October 2014, saw his numbers dip last season as he produced just 12.6 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. The 6-foot-8, 25-year-old is also too small to be a reliable rim protector to play center, and while he’s quick enough to switch on pick-and-rolls while playing power forward on defense, he has a tendency to sleep on some possessions or gamble too much on offensive rebounds, leaving his man open on the other end during fast breaks.

Faried is also unreliable to score the basketball away from the paint – something that isn’t ideal in today’s pace-and-space NBA. At best, he tops off as the best kind of hustle man. Malone talked about transforming Faried into someone like Draymond Green, but given that the Nuggets are better when Galo plays the 4 and that they have a talented young center prospect in Jusuf Nurkic, Faried’s days in Denver may be numbered.

Outside of Mudiay, Gallinari, and maybe 28-year-old Wilson Chandler, who was signed to a 4-year, $46 million extension this summer, Denver doesn’t really have players to create on offense. They’re also in the first year under a new head coach’s system, so time will be needed for players to get used to it. When you’re playing in the West like the Nuggets are, getting off to a slow start could be enough to keep them in the lower half of the conference for the entire season.

Changes could still be coming

There could be a few more trades on the horizon for the Nuggets. Seeing as Galo is a more complete player and Denver clearly wants to go into the future with Nurkic as their center, Faried is a candidate to be moved before or at the trade deadline. They could keep him as a back-up, energy-providing power forward, but it’s not ideal for his price tag.

A playoff team looking for some extra hustle and spark could make the move for Faried. Given how the NBA salary cap is expected to rise over the next few years, the said team could easily swallow his hefty contract. Denver, who’s in a rebuild, should use that money to snag a potential star or free agent in the future.

Chandler’s extension is a sign Denver is welcome to the idea of him being part of their future, but if they get a good offer from another team – say, a first-round draft pick – I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets pull a trigger on that one. The same goes for Gallinari. 

Prediction

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a team good enough to make serious noise in the Western Conference yet, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be fun to watch. Mudiay, I believe, is going to turn out to be a very good point guard one day. Gallinari has always been entertaining on the court, and it will be compelling how Malone will shape this team – will they really run a lot? Will they be defensive oriented? Will they spread the floor with 5 guys?

Quite a few questions still surround the franchise, but most of those are good rather than reasons to be worried.

Statistics mentioned above are courtesy of ESPN, NBA.com, and Grantland.

– Rappler.com