Holding Court – The Miami Heat’s Dilemma

The Miami Heat didn’t only lose to San Antonio in the recent NBA finals; they lost to the Spurs so badly that many of their previously hidden weaknesses – which were in partially covered up by playing in the relatively weak Eastern Conference – were exposed for all the world to see.

While the Heat finished second in the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season, scoring 109 points per 100 possessions, they were not as good on the defensive end, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, the first time in the Big Three era of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh they finished outside the top 10 in that category. This was magnified even more in the playoffs, where Miami allowed 108.7 points per 100 possessions and an effective field-goal percentage of 53.9 percent.

To illustrate how much that impacted the Heat’s drive towards a three-peat, one has to take note that no team has won an NBA title allowing an effective field-goal percentage of higher than 50 percent.  Looking at it another way, the Heat, during their championship seasons of 2012 and 2013, allowed just 98.5 and 99.8 points per 100 possessions, in that order, roughly 10 points less than they did this year.

The Heat’s decline on defense may be traced to a number of factors. One, they had no interior presence.  Bosh, who is their nominal center, can never be mistaken for a Kevin Garnett in his younger days even if his taking up the slot was patterned after KG’s deployment there by former team Boston. Meanwhile, Chris Andersen, their best inside operator, is simply not in the class of other elite big men in the league and, at close to 36, has had his share of wear and tear. Heat original Udonis Haslem himself has slowed down considerably at 34, and Greg Oden, who was picked up by Pat Riley from the scrap heap towards the end of the season, simply isn’t going to amount to anything more than a damaged big body occupying space on the basketball floor. 

How bad Miami had become inside may be reflected in the fact that among 30 teams in the league, the Heat finished 30^th and dead-last in rebounds in the regular season. Isn’t that ironic when it was Riley who once declared, “No rebounds, no rings” in allusion to the fact that for a team to be competitive, much less be a champion, it has to be capable of dominating the boards?

Of course, the wear and tear Wade has suffered through various injuries he’s had particularly to his knees have also deprived Miami of somebody who can roam the perimeter and defend at an elite level, something the Heat weren’t able to do against the Spurs, who ran rings around them as they broke free for those deadly jumpers.

And one can’t ignore the apparent decline on the defensive end by James himself. For all the wondrous feats James has pulled off on offense, the load the Heat has put on his shoulders in practically every aspect of the game has seemed to have sapped LeBron of his strength, if not his hunger. As we earlier noted a couple of months back in drawing up our All-Defensive Teams, James was not the same defensive demon that he previously was this year.

Tom Haberstroh of ESPN pointed out that James had kept his man in front of him just 40 percent of the time (the league median is 50 percent) while he had been beaten back on defense 2.8 times per game, which was also significantly above the league average. “LeBron’s been slower than usual on closeouts all season, and the transition defense has never been as sharp as it should be for a team with LeBron and Wade running around out there,” Haberstroh observed. “The hounding pick-and-roll coverage that blitzes ballhandlers out of their UnderArmour has also come and gone, even in bigger games. And occasionally, (James will) pull up short, expecting help on plays he should probably be wiping up himself. SportVU has him giving up baskets at the rim 51.7 percent of the time on 2.8 attempts per game.”

Against the Spurs, for example, the man matched up against James most of the time, Leonard, shot 65.0 percent (13-of-20) when guarded by the Miami superstar, raising the eventual Finals MVP’s overall shooting clip to 61.2 percent.

Such a slide in defensive moxie on James’ part may be traced to the Heat’s lack of depth, which was an issue all season long but bit them hardest in the finals when they went up against a Spurs team where not a single player averaged as many as 30 minutes all throughout the regular season. This depth issue was further exacerbated by the Heat’s advancing age (Ray Allen, Shane Battier, James Jones, Rashard Lewis and Wade himself are also on the wrong side of 30) and the release of a major contributor to last year’s title, Mike Miller. Miller, who was later claimed by Memphis and was a productive reserve for the Grizzlies, was amnestied (waived to prevent his salary from counting towards the salary cap) by Miami in an effort to avoid paying the luxury tax. This led to a scenario where San Antonio’s starters and guys like Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, Marco Belinelli and Tiago Splitter could go full throttle without worrying about the physical consequences, while the Heat were hard-pressed to rely for extended periods on their core group, which, with Mario Chalmers in a funk, wasn’t all that productive.

And no Heat player was more adversely affected than James. Generally acknowledged as the best player in the world today, James was nonetheless forced to carry a load that was a bit too much even for somebody of his stature, and it told on his physical and mental state. Even as Wade was being rested for 28 games in the regular season, LeBron didn’t enjoy the luxury that the Spurs’ trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili enjoyed in terms of rest, and was mentally, if not exactly physically burned out when the finals came.  

Illustrating this burnout factor is the disparity in total minutes played by James and Duncan this entire past season. While Duncan played a total of 2,910 minutes in 97 games (including 23 in the playoffs) for an average of 30.0 minutes, James totaled 3,665 in the same number of games (20 in the postseason) for a norm of 37.8 minutes. The 755-minute disparity between the two players, even assuming their eight-plus-year difference in age but factoring in the all-around production required of James, translates to roughly 16 more games played by James.

The depth factor is something that has to be addressed this offseason if the Heat, in the words of Riley, are to prove they have the “guts” not to “run out” if they get the opportunity. It’s ironic again that in the Heat president’s season-closing press conference, he put the onus on the Heat players, and it may well be understandable. James, Wade and Bosh, after all, can opt out of their current contracts this summer, and the only way the Heat can add significant pieces to their roster is if the Big Three would be willing to do that and then re-sign for less money.

But didn’t the Heat know this in the first place? Or didn’t the Big Three realize it would come to this point – where they would need more help with the players around them or they themselves getting old, or perhaps others going elsewhere – when they declared back in 2010 that they’d win “not one, not two… not five,  not six…” number of titles? It’s only Year 4 into that coming together but the Heat are on the verge of breaking down, if not breaking up, that supposed super team they formed complete with all the frills, including a television special by James about “The Decision” that probably alienated not only his native Cleveland but half of the basketball world.

In fairness, the Heat became only the third team in history to have made it to the NBA finals four straight years (after the Bill Russell Celtics in the ‘50s and ‘60s and the Larry Bird Celtics in the ‘80s), for which they can show two titles. As Riley said in his press conference, “From Day 1 to the end, it was like a Broadway show. You sort of run out of steam. And we need to retool.”

Riley had a mouthful for the media, and, by extension, for his own Big Three themselves whom he seemed to be addressing through the media in this session that he held four days after the Spurs ended the Heat’s reign with a 104-87 blowout in Game 5 of the finals. “I think everybody needs to get a grip,” he said. “Media, Heat players, organization, you know, all of our fans. You’ve got to get a grip on greatness, and on teams. I’ve been here for 45 years in the NBA, and I’ve witnessed dynasties. I’ve witnessed great teams. The ‘80s Lakers. Five championships in 12 years. So what does that mean? Seven times they didn’t win.  

“They didn’t run,” Riles continued as he appeared to turn to his own players while citing the examples of other teams that won multiple titles but lost just the same on other occasions, including the ‘80s Celtics, the Chicago Bulls of the late ‘80s and ‘90s, the Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant Lakers and the Spurs themselves. “This stuff is hard. You’ve got to stay together, if you’ve got the guts, and you don’t find the first door and run out of it if you have an opportunity.”

But in reality, this isn’t just all about guts and the desire to win. This is also about making real sacrifices that Riley is, in effect, asking particularly James, Wade and Bosh to do in terms of giving up more money by opting out before the June 29 deadline, and then probably re-signing for longer deals at lower annual average salaries. The Heat are capped out, and with the salary cap for next season pegged at $63.2 million, Miami would come alarmingly close to that by just paying the Big Three, whose options already total $61.2 million. And we’ve not even factored in Norris Cole’s guaranteed $2.2 million salary, Andersen’s $1.4 million, or Haslem’s $4.6 million player option, or perhaps merely keeping any of the reserves on the team’s current roster.

While Battier is retiring to join the ESPN panel covering NBA games, and Ray Allen might just follow suit, that would represent just $6.5 million in salary being freed up. Miami simply has no financial flexibility to sign any significant free agent or accept additional salaries in trades beyond the $3.1 million trade exceptions it earned in the Joel Anthony and Roger Mason Jr. deals with Boston and Sacramento, respectively, as well as the midlevel exception that it currently has.

This is why the rumors about Carmelo Anthony coming to South Beach to form a “Fantastic Four,” or even recruiting free agents like Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry, who would appear to be an ideal fit for the Heat considering how bad they were at the “one” position, would appear to be just that and have no chance of coming to pass. Anthony, for example, may opt for free agency as he reportedly just told the Knicks but he must be aware that at age 30, this would be his last chance to get a maximum contract, and he could earn as much as $129.1 million by re-signing for five years with New York. If he signs with, say, Houston or Chicago, as other reports said, he could get something like $96 million over four years. He would, however, be getting something in the vicinity of just $60 million if he opts to join his friend LeBron in Miami, and that is about $70 million less than he would get with the Knicks! (RELATED: Here comes the Summer of LeBron part 2)

It’s thus clear that the Melo scenario is just about as far from happening as Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden are from reviving their careers. Even assuming Anthony is willing to take a drastic pay cut for a chance to win a championship, the onus would still be on James, Wade and Bosh to make it all work by making their own financial sacrifices. But would the Miami Three – particularly James who is at the peak of his earning power and probably deserves to be the highest-paid star in the league – be willing to take another pay cut the way they did in 2010? Initial reports say that James won’t be willing to do that again – give up $20.6 million next season and $22.1 million in 2016 – just so Heat owner Micky Arison can avoid paying luxury taxes. Wade, meanwhile, also has $41.6 million remaining over the next two years and is coming off what is probably his worst season since his rookie year in 2004, while Bosh has exactly as much money left over the same period as James.

Yet, James, Wade and Bosh must be acutely aware that the only way they can remotely come to fulfilling that “not five, not six…” declaration of four years ago (or are they even thinking of that now after what’s happened?) is by rebuilding the Heat’s roster. And the only way they can do that is by agreeing to opt out and re-sign for less money, or maybe re-up for a longer deal and more money but with less at the front end of the deal to allow for more cap space in the beginning.

“We have a chance to do something significant, but losing is just as much a part of it as winning is,” Riley said. “And when you’re a team, you deal with it. No, there was no hugging (after the finals loss), and there was no high-fiving.  There’s just looking around the room now and finding out who’s going to stand up. This is time that you go home and take care of yourself, and look at yourself. What are you going to do to come back and make the team better?”

Of course, Riley must be speaking with the understanding that Arison would be willing to pay the luxury tax, something that he eschewed this past season and thus took away from the team’s depth, to put a strong supporting cast around James, Wade and Bosh.

“He will do anything to get those guys to come back,” Riley insists of Arison. “There has been a perception he doesn’t want to pay the tax. That’s B.S.  He isn’t asking anyone to take a cut to pay the tax.  That’s a voluntary thing from the player. We are not asking them to do that. Micky will do whatever he has to do to keep this team together.”

Riley might have just thrown the gauntlet at Arison. At the same time, he has also issued the challenge to the Big Three, particularly to James, who is just 7-15 in finals games now and is aware that his legacy depends on the number of titles he can win from hereon in. Will he, as well as Wade and Bosh, finally decide to do what’s best for the team and for themselves in terms of the legacy they’ll leave behind?

They’re faced with not many choices, and it might just be time to put their money where their mouth is. One more time. 

SHORTSHOTS: The foot injury to Joel Embiid, the projected top pick in this week’s NBA draft, has thrown the draft in shambles. The seven-foot Embiid underwent surgery last week, with two screws having been inserted in the navicular bone in his right foot, where a stress fracture was discovered.  More on this next issue… The Kevin Love sweepstakes has made another turn, with Golden State, previously thought as having taken the upperhand in the race to acquire the three-time Minnesota All-Star through a trade, reportedly refusing to part with Klay Thompson, who had previously been reported as available.  By the way, we watched the 6-10 Love during his special guest appearance in the Master Game Face All-Star Challenge, taking part in the three-point shootout between teams of brand endorsers Chris Tiu and Marc Pingris. Without the benefit of a warmup, Love shot 15 points for Tiu’s team and then scored an event-high 19, including nine straight shots that left a crowd of 14,000 gasping, for Team Marc… The Cleveland Cavaliers have hired David Blatt as their next head coach, signing him to a three-year, $10 million contract with a team option for a fourth year as they made him the first European mentor to jump to the NBA as head coach. The 55-year-old Blatt, a Boston native, led Maccabi Tel Aviv to the Euroleague championship this season, coached the Russian team to the bronze medal in the 2012 London Olympics, and is a four-time Israeli League Coach of the Year while also leading Spain to the gold medal in the 2007 FIBA EuroBasket championship. – Rappler.com