One more match: Alaska, San Miguel battle in winner-take-all game 7

 

MANILA, Philippines – Game seven. 

Those are the two most riveting words in basketball.

The whole country is tuned in. Teams go all out for the ultimate prize. Heroes are made. Stories are created. Everything else that happened prior goes out of the window, because nothing else matters during those two and a half hours when both teams go out on the floor and aim to make history.

Game Seven. 

On Wednesday, January 21, the Alaska Aces and San Miguel Beermen will write the concluding chapter to what has been an epic 2015 PBA Philippine Cup finals series. 

Throughout the first six games, there were multiple double-digit comebacks, standout individual performances, and a few brawls here and there that warranted a fine worth about 60,000 pesos.

But most of all, both teams have produced great basketball and entertainment. It was a series that had lofty expectations coming into game one. Not only have the Beermen and Aces met the anticipation of many; they’ve surpassed it.

No team has been willing to succumb to the other. Such a war deserves a final battle at the biggest possible stage as everyone watches. And that stage will be the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Wednesday night. 

Here are the keys to winning for both teams:

Alaska:

Whatever they’re doing to contain June Mar Fajardo, they have to keep doing it

When you’re facing a team with the reigning league MVP and arguably most dominant local force in the league since the prime days of Asi Taulava, hoping to shut him down isn’t possible. 

But you can contain him, or at least make him work to get to his scoring average; like making him have to take 18 shots to get to 18 points.

With June Mar Fajardo, the Aces have done the former. By throwing an array of bodies at SMB’s starting center – whether it be Sonny Thoss, Eric Menk, Vic Manuel or Sam Eman – Alaska has made sure Fajardo has had to bruise, claw, and struggle to merely get the ball in the post and get up a decent shot attempt.

Fajardo’s averaging 13.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, and 53% shooting from the field in the finals. Those are still very good statistics, but his scoring has taken a significant drop from his 21.0 PPG, 11.8 RGP, and 56% shooting averages in SMB’s semis sweep over Talk ‘N Text. It’s also below the reigning MVP’s 18.6-12.7-57% line from the elimination round.

Whatever Alaska has done to limit the 6-foot-11 superstar – from constantly sending double and triple teams, to fouling him rather than giving up an easy layup, to fronting him in the post so it’s hard for SMB’s point guards to get him the ball – they need to continue doing it all in one more game for a better shot at the title.

Shoot, JVee, shoot

Here are splits of Casio’s averages so far in the finals:

Games 1, 3, and 6: 11 PPG, 11 shot attempts per game, 3 wins

Games 2, 4, and 5: 4.7 PPG, 6 shot attempts per game, 3 losses

Casio doesn’t rack up high numbers of assists, but with an average of 3.1 APG this conference, he has made it a point to get his teammates the ball. But sometimes, the consequences of doing so includes the regress in his scoring, which subsequently haunts his team more than it helps.

(RELATED: JVee Casio puts scoring slump behind him)

If Casio is open – a lay-up, mid-range jumper, or 3-pointer – he has to take it, no questions asked. He led the PBA in 3-pointers made in the 2013 season and he’s currently shooting 33% from downtown this season. With Fajardo and Arwind Santos patrolling the paint on defense for the Beermen, the Aces will need every 3-ball they can get. 

Calvin Abueva at his best

Call Calvin Abueva whatever you want. Hate him for instigating fights. Despise him for not being the picture-perfect role model a superstar of the biggest sports league in the country should be. 

But here’s one thing you can never refuse to acknowledge: he is one hell of a player. And throughout the Philippine Cup Finals, he’s been San Miguel’s most destructive adversary.

Abueva is averaging 16.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, and 1.2 SPG in the finals. Those are better numbers than Fajardo’s, who beat the Aces superstar for the Best Player of the Conference award. 

At the top of his game, Abueva can affect a contest on both sides of the court like no one else in the PBA can. 

When Coach Alex Compton signals for his team to go press, assume Abueva’s going to get a couple of steals and easy baskets. When his teammates miss shots, he comes out of nowhere to grab boards for easy put-backs. He’s also added a reliable post-game to his arsenal, making him even more dangerous in the paint with a better ability to get to the foul line.

For a better chance to win game seven, Alaska will need Abueva to continue playing at a high level, and avoid losing focus to unnecessary petty fights.

San Miguel:

Get Fajardo the ball

Fajardo is the best player in the PBA today, which is why these numbers are baffling.  

Check out how many shots he’s taken in each game of the Finals: 

Game 1: 9

Game 2: 8

Game 3: 10

Game 4: 5

Game 5: 8

Game 6: 7

To be fair, Fajardo’s taking close to 7 free throw attempts per game, most of which come from shot attempts that aren’t converted due to fouls from the opposition. But the numbers indicated above are still too low considering San Miguel has the most dominant force in the league right now.

Alaska’s done a tremendous job forcing SMB to beat them outside of Fajardo. They’ve conceded a number of open perimeter shots due to double and triple teams surrounding the SMB big man. The tactic has worked because their lesser-talented roster has forced a deeper and more loaded Beermen team to seven games. 

Point guards like Chris Ross and Alex Cabagnot have had trouble getting him the ball in the post, but they’ve also had a tiring habit of giving up on trying to get Fajardo the handle once the first entry pass option is forced away by the Aces.  

A number of times in game 6, Fajardo did a good job re-posting his defender once his first post-up option was broken off, but didn’t get the ball back. 

In game 5, the Beermen did a better job of getting the ball to Fajardo by including him in multiple pick-and-roll plays. He took only 8 shots, but took a trip to the free throw line 13 times. He scored 19 points in the win – the most he’s had in any game this series.  

In game 6, it was as if San Miguel shut out the plan and rarely involved their big man in PNR situations. They took 36 3-point attempts to just 34 2-point attempts. That’s not a great ratio taking their personnel into account. 

Coach Leo Austria must find a way to get Fajardo the ball against Alaska’s suffocating interior defense, whether by demanding his point guards go pick-and-roll with him continuously or making sure he attains the ball on re-post situations right away.

In San Miguel’s game four semis clincher over Talk ‘N Text, he attempted 17 en route to 28 points, 16 rebounds, and 5 assists. A similar outing might be necessary for the Beermen to take game 7 against a better opponent in Alaska. 

They can’t take their foot off the gas pedal

In game 1, San Miguel led Alaska 27-5 at the end of the first quarter, but wound up losing in overtime, 88-82. The Beermen led the Aces by 21 late in the third quarter of game three, 61-40, and still lost 78-70. In game 6, SMB was up 15-2 in the first quarter, but still lost 87-76. 

Holding on to leads has been a major problem for San Miguel this series. Compton has played with fire by bringing Abueva off the bench, but it has brought good results. San Miguel gets off to early leads, and once the subs of both squads come in, “The Beast” included, their breathing room shrinks until the Aces manage to tie the game or take the lead.

Guys like Chris Exciminiano, Chris Banchero, Dondon Hontiveros, and Menk also deserve credit for providing bench firepower in order for Alaska to trim deficits. But San Miguel deserves a lot of blame as well. In many occasions, they’ve taken their foot off the gas pedal and allowed their opponents to take momentum of the match. They get lackadaisical on offense and allow multiple turnovers that lead to easy Alaska points. 

Time to step up, Alex Cabagnot 

When the Beermen acquired Alex Cabagnot before the trade deadline and in time for the playoffs, many called his exchange for Sol Mercado unfair – and rightfully so. He was leading GlobalPort in scoring, passing, and rebounding while the guy he was traded for was averaging just 6.2 PPG. 

SMB’s rivals were worried the league-leading team would only get stronger, and that become  evident during the Beermen’s sweep of the Tropang Texters where Cabagnot averaged 14.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, and 3.3 APG. 

But against the Aces, Cabagnot’s hasn’t been a huge factor. He’s putting up just 9.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, and 4.2 APG through six games in the finals. His best outing was a 22-point night in game 4, which his team won fairly easily, 88-70. 

Game 5 was the easiest win of the series for the Beermen, and Cabagnot’s big game was a huge reason why. Fajardo and Santos (17.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG) have been solid in the finals, while Chris Lutz (11.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.0 APG) – albeit he’s been up-and-down – has contributed in many ways as well.

If Cabagnot can replicate his game 4 outing in game 7 to go with the play of the three aforementioned players, it could be an easy win for San Miguel’s 20th franchise title.

– Rappler.com