Yay or nay? Predicting the UAAP Season 79 basketball tournament

MANILA, Philippines – That excitement in the air that can only be brought by the imminent arrival of the latest UAAP men’s basketball tournament is back.

In 3 days, the 79th season of the collegiate sports league will hold its opening ceremonies at the campus of host school UST. A day later, the basketball action tips off at the Smart-Araneta Coliseum.

(SCHEDULE: UAAP Season 79 basketball first round)

There are many storylines surrounding each team, such as the entrance of 4 new head coaches and a high-profile consultant. Rappler sports reporters Jane Bracher and Naveen Ganglani aim to predict how this season will turn out by answering questions for each school with either a “yay” or a “nay.”

Check them out below:

1. This is the year that UE, in its third season under Derrick Pumaren, will make “the leap” to the Final Four.

Jane Bracher: Yay. I’m not ruling out UE this season. The Red Warriors are potential dark horses for the Final Four this year with their fast guards ripening over time. I think a Final Four appearance is possible for them, but they will have to go through an extra layer of difficulty as they compete with an all-Filipino lineup against other teams with foreign players. UE will need consistent total team effort to get it done.

Naveen Ganglani: Yay. There are two reasons behind this: 1) Most of UE’s core players are returning after spending another year further learning Derrick Pumaren’s vaunted press defense-oriented system; and 2) Outside of La Salle, there’s no clear-cut Final Four team this season. I also have concerns about UE fielding an all-Filipino line-up in a league where almost all other teams will have a foreign recruit, but I think the Red Warriors have enough firepower and talent to sneak in the next round.

2. UP will win more than 3 games this season.

Jane: Yay. Coach Bo Perasol will be able to steer the hungry Maroons to some wins this season. And if his time with Powerade in the PBA is any indication, he certainly knows how to handle the underdogs.

Naveen: Yay. If there’s one thing we know about UAAP hoops, it’s that teams with seasoned veterans usually rise to the top of the standings. Now I don’t think the Maroons have enough depth to become a title contender, and getting in the Final Four will also be a challenge, but I think with a new experienced head coach in Bo Perasol and seniors like Jett Manuel, Paul Desiderio, and Dave Moralde leading the way, UP will exceed its win total last season and instill excitement in the community.

(READ: Perasol, Manuel hope to begin winning tradition for UP Maroons)

3. Adamson will have a winning record when the elimination round ends.

Jane: Yay. Two words: Franz Pumaren. He simply knows college hoops. It’ll be tough to bet against him. Also, FEU coach Nash Racela tabbed the Soaring Falcons as true dark horses for this season. Last year, Racela saw UST coming a month before the season started when nobody else did. So I’m inclined to believe his assessment again this time around.

Naveen: Yay. I’ll take you one step further: I believe they make the Final Four. Like Jane said, college basketball is Franz Pumaren’s forte. He always gets the most out of his student-athletes, and after watching the intensity of their scrimmages up close, I’m confident the Falcons will take a lot of teams by surprise. Additionally, Adamson’s double-double machine Papi Sarr has improved, which is a major problem for the rest of the league.

(READ: Franz Pumaren is changing the culture at Adamson)

4. NU is this season’s dark horse team to win the UAAP title.

Jane: Nay. And only because La Salle is the overwhelming favorite. Though so many teams have a strong chance to make the Finals, the Bulldogs included, I’m just not sure whether any of them will be able to complete the upset. NU is comfortably flying under the radar with a mix of veterans and rookies, however. I could be very wrong about this, and I’m fine with that.

Naveen: Yay. Alfred Aroga, NU’s starting center, is the only big I see in the UAAP who can contain Ben Mbala. He’s also a monster on the boards and can be a go-to guy when the Bulldogs need scoring. I have concerns if the team can make up for the loss of Gelo Alolino, which is something I assume will be taken care of by the improvement of J-Jay Alejandro and Rev Diputado. The arrival of stretch big Matt Salem and rookie Josh Sinclair will also be huge for the team. NU will be really good.

5. UST can make another surprising run to the UAAP Finals.

Jane: Nay. It’s admirable the kind of philosophy new coach Boy Sablan is instilling in his players – one of sacrifice and a team-first mentality. His team comprised of role players can be dangerous because they will be playing with nothing to lose. But still, a go-to guy will be needed in crunch-time situations. It’ll be interesting to see how they will respond when that time comes.

Naveen: Nay. I think the Growling Tigers will be a bit better than people think, but I don’t see the team finding enough production to replace the departures of Kevin Ferrer, Ed Daquioag, and Karim Abdul to make a fourth finals appearance in the last 5 years.

(READ: The lonely Vigil along España: UST captain Louie Vigil talks about the season of discontent)

6. Ateneo can survive the loss of 7 players and contend for a Final Four seed.

Jane: Yay. They’re young but they can contend, largely because of the addition of coach Tab Baldwin as consultant to the team and helping out coach Sandy Arespacochaga. I’m more curious, though, to see what Thirdy Ravena will do for the Blue Eagles this year.

Naveen: Yay. All signs point to Aaron Black becoming a star in the league, plus watch out as well for a better Thirdy Ravena and exciting rookie Raffy Verano. Of course, it’s also well known that Blue Eagles consultant Tab Baldwin is a basketball guru. In terms of the Final Four, I think the Blue Eagles will be in the chase early before eventually falling off late in the season.

(READ: All eyes on Thirdy)

7. Despite the departures of key players, FEU should still be considered a UAAP title contender.

Jane: Yay. Like Franz Pumaren, it’s hard to bet against a coach like Nash Racela. He is good at playing to his team’s strengths and at the same time finding the chinks in the armors of his opponents.

Naveen: Nay. This is a tough one because I believe Nash Racela is a very, very good basketball coach who always gets the most out of his entire roster. I just don’t see how the Tamaraws will make up for the losses of Mac Belo, Mike Tolomia, Russel Escoto, and Roger Pogoy – their main core – to contend for a championship another year. They’ll make some noise, but likely not in the finals.

8. La Salle should be considered the favorite to win the UAAP title.

Jane: This is an easy yay. All the hype is on the Green Archers this season. They have big man Ben Mbala coming in and Jeron Teng playing in his final year. What will test them is how they would respond to the pressure. The UAAP championship is definitely theirs to lose this year.

Naveen: Yay. Two words: Ben Mbala. Just look at the stats he had against NCAA contender Arellano in the FilOil finals. It’s also ridiculous how loaded the Green Archers are: Jeron Teng (MVP candidate), Jason Perkins (former Mythical 5 selection), Abu Tratter, Thomas Torres, the returning Kib Montalbo, Juniors MVP Aljun Melecio, and a lot more. Champion coach Aldin Ayo has changed the culture in La Salle, and from what we’ve seen so far – an undefeated run in the preseason tournament where they were barely challenged – they should clearly be the favorite. – Rappler.com