‘Keep your friends close and your enemies closer’

Carlo Fong Luy

This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

‘Keep your friends close and your enemies closer’
'Our leaders must remain prudent and pursue a policy like 'omnienmeshment' to create an inclusive regional environment where our interests align with that of our neighbors and allies'
With the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the legality of China’s 9-Dash Line drawing near, and a week since the commemoration of our 118th Independence Day, national pride is boosting the country’s expectations. The court is widely expected to rule in the Philippines’ favor – a move likely to raise tensions considering China’s promised defiance.  

But it is important to first qualify what a favorable ruling really means. It is inappropriate to frame the case as a fight simply over territory. While China seeks to extend sovereignty over the area charted by its 9-Dash Line, the Philippines is merely protecting its entitlements within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Philippine diplomats have emphasized this point, as did incoming Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. in a recent interview with Rappler. A “win” does not mean we own the place; rather, we maintain special rights to the resources found within the 200 nautical miles from our shores. Consequently, one should not expect the United States (US) to support any sovereignty claims. Washington did not use its military hardware to wrestle control of Scarborough Shoal for us in 2012 because the Americans effectively function as a security guarantor by being non-partisan in these disputes. It is appropriate that the US and the Philippines have supported the freedom of navigation through what is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Excessive entrenchment over sovereignty can be interpreted more as a sign of weakness rather than a show of strength. Chinese rhetoric over its “national rejuvenation” and so-called “peaceful rise” together with its geopolitical “island chain” philosophy reflects a state that is insecure. Nationalism is being used as an ordering tool for its domestic affairs and Beijing’s maritime territorial claims come hand-in-hand with its Belt-Road Initiative which tries to funnel development to trouble areas like Xinjiang and Tibet in order to pacify them, as observed by Professor Christopher Hughes, a China expert at the London School of Economics. A key component of national power is the ability to mobilize people and resources around a state’s security agenda, and the Chinese government is constantly paranoid over maintaining its grip and finds itself resorting to hubris in order validate its mandate. We must understand the motivations for China’s recalcitrance and assertive stance over its territorial integrity which it has tied to regime security.

The ruling should not be interpreted as or become part of a strategy to isolate China. Containment is a remnant of the Cold War and it is unrealistic to think that the second largest economy can be effectively isolated. It would be more beneficial to have China as a responsible global player, which is why a continued policy of engagement remains a prudent choice.

From a regional perspective, ASEAN remains a nascent security community that is not yet capable of dealing with issues like the current maritime disputes due to the differences in security interests among member states. The Code of Conduct remains elusive due to the inability of the various parties to see eye-to-eye on the issue. Instead, this ruling is a way to strengthen international institutions like international law that ultimately serve to equalize the positions of states on the global stage.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (3rd R) and foreign ministers from ASEAN-member nations attend a special ASEAN-China foreign ministers' meeting in Yuxi, southwest China's Yunnan Province on June 14, 2016. Stringer/AFP

Ambassador Enrique Manalo boils the issue down the upholding the rule of law and respecting international norms, which are as important to regional development as economic links. Unfortunately, in an anarchical system without an enforcement mechanism, text on paper does not stand a chance against the barrel of a gun.

So how are we going to continue to socialize China as a responsible member of the international community if it chooses to challenge international norms? In order to manage a regional power transition peacefully and in our favor, the Philippines must engage in strategic diversification to maintain regional order beyond the military dimension. Rather than get caught up in a costly and futile arms race, it would be wiser to keep multiple policy options on the table against contingencies.

In analyzing why a coalition did not form against Nazi Germany in the years leading up to World War II, for example, Britain, France, and the USSR pursued divergent and incompatible strategies (appeasement, alliance commitments, and bandwagoning, respectively). The Philippines must coordinate foreign policy with its neighbors and strategic allies. Negotiations with China should also remain on the table where the arbitration ruling boosts our leverage, but by no means should we capitulate and compromise our rights. Rather, China must be incentivized to change its behavior instead of being pressured.

Professor Evelyn Goh of the Australian National University coined the term “omnienmeshment” to describe this strategy of sustained multi-directional engagement that aims to draw a state into regional and international society in order to redefine and alter its interests. A win-win situation is possible if we play our cards right and such a result would be more conducive to a stable regional order than an atmosphere of mutual distrust. 

China will no doubt attempt to circumvent the convention, use its economic clout to pressure Western governments to dampen their support for our position, and capitalize on the divisions within ASEAN as we have seen in the recent fiasco over the joint statement at a meeting in Kunming earlier this week. However, the Philippines is not playing a zero-sum game; rather, it is a chance for our country to demonstrate that it is a responsible player in the international community in support of the norms that form the basis of order.

Our leaders must remain prudent and pursue a policy like “omnienmeshment” to create an inclusive regional environment where our interests align with that of our neighbors and allies. The next administration ought to build upon the arbitration ruling to eventually institutionalize a regional Code of Conduct and develop a stable and lasting security community. Diplomacy remains the only way to preserve and extend common values which are crucial to the future of international society and the interests of the Philippines.  – Rappler.com

Carlo Fong Luy is pursuing a master’s degree in International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. 

Sources 

Acharya, A. (2009) Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia, 2nd ed., New York, NY: Routledge

Ayoob, M. (1995) The Third World Security Predicament, London, UK: Lynne Rienner Publishers, Inc. 

Brawley, M. (2009) Neoclassical realism and strategic calculations. In: Lobell, S. et al. (eds.) Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Bull, H. (2012) The Anarchical Society, 4th ed., New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan Publishers Ltd.

Carr, E.H. (1939) The Twenty Years’ Crisis, London, UK: Macmillan & Co., Ltd.

Goh, E. (2007/8) Great Powers and Hierarchical Order in Southeast Asia, International Security, 32(3), pp. 113-157.

Add a comment

Sort by

There are no comments yet. Add your comment to start the conversation.

Summarize this article with AI

How does this make you feel?

Loading
Download the Rappler App!