Global slowdown spoils Duterte’s 8% GDP growth dream

Ralf Rivas

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Global slowdown spoils Duterte’s 8% GDP growth dream

Malacañang Photo

President Rodrigo Duterte's economic team lowers the Philippines' growth target to the 6.5% to 7.5% range for 2020 to 2022

MANILA, Philippines – The country’s economic growth is unlikely to hit an all-time high of 8% anytime soon, as global forces slap President Rodrigo Duterte’s economic team with a reality check.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) revised macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal growth targets in its 177th meeting on Wednesday, December 11.

For 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target was revised downward to a range of 6% to 6.5%, from the previous 6% to 7%. As of the first 3 quarters of the year, GDP growth is at 5.8%.

For 2020 to 2022, the government aims for GDP growth to settle between 6.5% and 7.5%, from the previous ambitious target of 7% to 8%.

The new growth targets took into consideration recent domestic and external developments.

The DBCC also maintained that inflation or the rate of increase in the prices of goods will no longer soar like in 2018 and will just settle within the target band of 2% to 4%.

The Philippine peso-US dollar exchange rate assumption was revised downward to P51 to P52 against the dollar in 2019, and P51 to P54 from 2020 to 2022.

As for exports growth, the DBCC lowered the target in the short term to 1% for 2019 and 4% in 2020 “due to continuing unresolved trade tensions.”

However, targets for 2021 and 2022 were retained at 6%, as the team expects the global economy to recover in the medium term. –

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Ralf Rivas

A sociologist by heart, a journalist by profession. Ralf is Rappler's business reporter, covering macroeconomy, government finance, companies, and agriculture.