Airline revenues forecast at half of 2019 levels in 2021 – IATA

Airline industry revenues are expected to remain 46% lower in 2021 than the $838 billion booked in the last pre-coronavirus year of 2019, industry body International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Tuesday, October 27, in a marked worsening of its forecasts.

Its previous outlook for a smaller drop of 29% “was based on expectations for a demand recovery commencing in the 4th quarter of 2020.”

That is now unlikely to materialize because of renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and government restrictions in response, said the federation representing 290 airlines.

Over the full year in 2020, IATA forecasts a 66% drop in traffic compared to last year.

“The 4th quarter of 2020 will be extremely difficult and there is little indication the 1st half of 2021 will be significantly better, so long as borders remain closed and/or arrival quarantines remain in place,” IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said in a statement.

Even with drastic cost-cutting, airlines will need further government aid to avoid running out of cash, de Juniac said.

IATA also urged airports and air traffic controllers not to increase their prices to cover shortfalls from the vastly lower traffic.

And it warned that relief for airlines this year on fuel costs thanks to low oil prices is expected to fade away in 2021.

“Even if we maximize our cost-cutting, we still won’t have a financially sustainable industry in 2021,” de Juniac said, adding that 1.3 million jobs were at risk in the aviation industry alone, with potential knock-on effects on millions more. – Rappler.com