Provide your email for confirmation

Tell us a bit about yourself

country *

Please provide your email address

welcome to Rappler

Login

To share your thoughts

Don't have an account?

Login with email

Check your inbox

We just sent a link to your inbox. Click the link to continue signing in. Can’t find it? Check your spam & junk mail.

Didn't get a link?

Use password?

Login with email

Reset password?

Please use the email you used to register and we will send you a link to reset your password

Check your inbox

We just sent a link to your inbox. Click the link to continue resetting your password. Can’t find it? Check your spam & junk mail.

Didn't get a link?

Sign up

Ready to get started

Already have an account?

Sign up with email

By signing up you agree to Rappler’s Terms and Conditions and Privacy

Check your inbox

We just sent a link to your inbox. Click the link to continue registering. Can’t find it? Check your spam & junk mail.

Didn't get a link?

Join Rappler+

Join Move

How often would you like to pay?

Annual Subscription

Monthly Subscription

Your payment was interrupted

Exiting the registration flow at this point will mean you will loose your progress

Your payment didn’t go through

Exiting the registration flow at this point will mean you will loose your progress

welcome to Rappler+

welcome to Move

welcome to Move & Rappler+

6.9% Philippine GDP growth in Q4 unlikely – economists

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – With the year practically over, economists see Philippine economic growth falling below target. (READ: PH GDP grows 6% in Q3)

Although the expected surge in overseas Filipino workers (OFW) remittances, stronger infrastructure spending, as well as the coming holiday and elections spending are seen to further boost the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter, the Philippines will have a hard time hitting 6% growth, some economists said.

Their remarks came a few minutes after the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Thursday, November 26, announced that the nation's GDP expanded 6% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier – higher than the revised 5.8% in the second quarter.

With 9-month growth at 5.6%, a 6% full-year growth is very much likely, given even better prospects for the last quarter, socio-economic planning chief Arsenio Balisacan said during a media briefing.

Balisacan said the country needs to grow by 6.9% in the fourth quarter to reach a full-year growth of 6%. (READ: Second half will be better - economists)

Its 7%-8% growth target for 2015, however, is out of reach.

GROWTH. The 6% growth in the previous quarter is slightly higher than the 5.8% GDP expansion in the second quarter of 2015.

Even 6% is unlikely

But for Benjamin Diokno, University of the Philippines (UP) economist and former budget secretary, the 6% GDP growth for 2015 is even unlikely.

"For the first 3 quarters, GDP growth averaged 5.6%. Assuming the economy can grow by 6.9% in the fourth quarter – an assumption that is possible but not likely – then the full-year GDP growth would be 5.925%,"  Diokno said in a text message.

Diokno’s computation is slightly less than Balisacan’s 6% full-year GDP growth forecast. (READ: PH to miss 2015 GDP growth target - economists)

"Given the economy's performance in the first half of the year, I have forecasted that the economy would grow by 5.9%. With GDP growth of 6% in the third quarter, my forecast is still doable though highly improbable," Diokno added.

With the final quarter almost over, agriculture and exports are showing downward signs, retail sales are tepid, and government spending is still below program, Diokno said.

His remarks were echoed by Asian Institute of Management (AIM) economist Emmanuel Leyco, saying that even the 6% full-year growth estimate of the government is unachievable.

“The [third quarter growth of] 6% is good. I also think that 6.9% target for fourth quarter is unachievable, as services sector as a major driver already grew 7.3% – which may be difficult to exceed in the fourth quarter,” Leyco said in a text message.

Accounting for half of the country’s GDP, the services sector expanded 7.3% in the third quarter. The industry sector, meanwhile, gained 5.4% on year.