MANILA, Philippines – Cutting bureaucreatic red tape, stepping up long-term urban planning, and adopting disruptive technology will help the Philippines overcome the risk posed by low productivity and sustain its momentum toward regional integration.
This was the conclusion of regional executives who addressed the 13th Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) International CEO Conference held on September 8.
"While other ASEAN (Association of the Southeast Asian Nations) member states are feeling the effects of volatile capital flows, falling commodity prices, and slowing growth in China, the Philippines continues to experience relatively robust economic growth," said Oliver Tonby, McKinsey & Company Southeast Asia managing director.
To sustain its momentum, Tonby said the Philippines will have to address a problem that plagues most Southeast Asian countries: Low productivity.
Citing a study his firm conducted in November last year, Tonby said three-quarters of the country’s economic growth is pumped up by a shift from agriculture to urban employment, and the rising number of young people entering the workforce.
"As these factors diminish, productivity growth will need to pick up the slack. The Philippines will need to hike its historical pace of productivity gains by almost 60% just to sustain its economic growth," Tonby said.
The Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the amount of final goods and services produced in a country, rose 5.6% last quarter, way below the 6.7% recorded the past year.
The latest GDP figure also caused the Philippines to slip as the third highest among Asia's major economies, behind China and Vietnam.
To address what appeared to be a downward trend for the country’s economic growth, Tonby said disruptive technology, global trade, and urbanization will help the country top Asia’s major economies.
Photo by Chrisee Dela Paz/Rappler
Adopting disruptive technology
"The Philippines could be fertile ground for these innovations; Filipinos are avid social media users and tend to be early adopters of new technologies," Tonby said.
"Every company, traditional or digital, has to drive innovation to be around for a long period. So, whether you own a bank or a retail company, ask yourself: Am I offering something new to my target market?" Nolledo said.
McKinsey & Company’s Tonby said emerging economies like the Philippines show that Internet adoption drives GDP growth, helping large firms to expand their services to new segments at different price points while boosting productivity for small companies that significantly improve their competitiveness.
"The biggest near-term challenges for the Philippines will be building out the necessary broadband infrastructure (which in most countries has required government intervention and support) at a faster pace than ASEAN peers, and cultivating a high-tech workforce," Tonby said.
"[A] not so fast internet connection is actually a competitive advantage, because we turn off a lot of foreign players who dont know how to handle a market where Internet connection isn’t quite as fast," he explained.
Technology, according to Tonby, is likely to cause some disruption in the labor market, as supply chains are being automated and e-commerce supplanting the traditional physical stores.
"In all, 6% to 8% of ASEAN’s total non-farm labor force in 2030 – or 12 million to 17 million workers in non-farm jobs – could be displaced by technology. Governments will have to make sure that these workers have access to support and retraining," Tonby said.
Photo by the Land Registration Authority
Streamlining red tape
The Philippines and other ASEAN member states will need to make critical decisions on how they will trade and compete in a more interconnected global economy.