COVID-19

Stricter quarantine restrictions in 2021 ‘not an option’ – NEDA

Aika Rey

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Stricter quarantine restrictions in 2021 ‘not an option’ – NEDA

PANDEMIC PRACTICES. Market-goers start to flock Ylaya Street in Divisoria for an early Christmas shopping on Tuesday, December 2, 2020, ignoring physical distancing despite the danger of COVID-19.

Photo by Inoue Jaena/Rappler

Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua pushes for looser restrictions on children and family activities to boost consumption. Minors are still not allowed in malls.
Stricter quarantine restrictions in 2021 ‘not an option’ – NEDA

The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said reverting to stricter quarantine restrictions “is not an option” in 2021, as the government tries to prevent a further contracted economy.

While the contraction for 2020 was sharper than initially expected, President Rodrigo Duterte’s economic team is expecting a strong economic comeback.

Given that a new COVID-19 variant – reportedly more infectious than the dominant one – has already spread in over a dozen countries worldwide, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua said the public should continue following minimum health protocols to prevent the new variant’s transmission.

“What is clear from our experience this year is that we need to continue working together if we want a better 2021. The losses have been huge and a reversal to stricter community quarantines in 2021 is not an option,” Chua said Wednesday, December 30.

NEDA said reverting to the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila and neighboring regions costs P2.1 billion in lost wages a day. The general community quarantine (GCQ), meanwhile, costs P700 million in lost wages every day.

Restricting children and family activities were among the biggest contributors to these foregone wages, NEDA said.

If these restrictions were relaxed, NEDA estimated that the gross domestic product growth in the 3rd quarter could have been 4 percentage points higher at -7.5%, rather the -11.5% recorded.

“All these mean that while we opened the supply side during GCQ and MGCQ by allowing establishments and public transport to operate at higher capacity, the demand side is still very limited given the continuous restrictions that prevent children, and hence families from going out,” he said.

Chua, citing data from leading malls and fast-food chains, said some 32% to 50% of sales are driven by family consumption. Another fast-food chain he cited estimated food for children make up 43% of total sales.

Currently, minors are still not allowed to enter malls.

“All economic indicators reveal that with the safe relaxation of community quarantines, incomes and jobs come back,” he added.

The Philippine GDP, so far, is the worst performer in Asia, registering a 10% contraction in the first 3 quarters of the year, while most countries started to post just single-digit contractions.

Economic managers are batting for looser quarantine restrictions and the Build, Build, Build infrastructure program to boost the ailing economy. The arrival of the COVID-19 vaccine in the country also paints an upward growth forecast.

“In 2021, the key to our recovery is to continue managing risks, not to avoid them completely. This way, we can bring back jobs and income sources to enable the far majority of people to also address their non-COVID-19 sicknesses and hunger,” said Chua. – Rappler.com

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Aika Rey

Aika Rey is a business reporter for Rappler. She covered the Senate of the Philippines before fully diving into numbers and companies. Got tips? Find her on Twitter at @reyaika or shoot her an email at aika.rey@rappler.com.