Recovery in global trade to stall again in Q1 2021 – UN report

A recovery in global trade is expected to slow again in the 1st quarter of 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic keeps disrupting the travel industry after world trade contracted 9% in 2020, a United Nations report said on Wednesday, February 10.

After lockdowns caused trade to shrink 15% in the 1st half of 2020, it rebounded in the 2nd half, with global trade in goods up about 8% in the 4th quarter compared with the 3rd, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.

That was largely due to developing countries, particularly those in East Asia, with trade in goods originating from the region up 12% in the 4th quarter year-on-year.

“East Asian economies have been leading the recovery process with strong export growth and gains in global market share,” UNCTAD said, adding that most manufacturing sectors rebounded in the 4th quarter, apart from energy and transport.

However, trade in services stagnated at levels seen in the 3rd quarter, the report said, adding that exports of services from China, and to a lesser degree India, had fared relatively better than other countries.

For the 1st quarter of 2021, UNCTAD projects a 1.5% fall in trade in goods versus the previous quarter, and a 7% drop in trade in services, although it said its forecasts were uncertain due to the pandemic and uncertainty about stimulus packages. – Rappler.com