Stocks gain on improved sentiment, crude at $120

NEW YORK, USA – Global equity markets rose on Monday, June 6, on signs of an easing of COVID-19 pandemic-related and other restrictions by China and as investors took expected interest rate hikes in coming days in their stride despite crude oil hitting $120 a barrel.

The dollar gained against the euro ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday, June 9, but risk appetite ebbed after being higher earlier on the day.

Sterling rose ahead of a confidence vote in Parliament that Prime Minister Boris Johnson won, but a rebellion by 148 of his 359 Conservative Party lawmakers dealt a serious blow to his authority.

A Wall Street Journal report that Chinese regulators are concluding probes into ride-hailing giant Didi Global, as well as the easing of domestic pandemic-related curbs, have bolstered sentiment, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

“You’ve got the world’s second largest economy continuing to open up,” Chandler said, referring to China. “It looks like Didi may be available again at the mobile app stores and Beijing opened up public transportation.”

Didi shares closed up 24.3% after earlier surging more than 50% on the Journal report. The news earlier helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tech index close 4.6% higher.

Sentiment also was aided by comments by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo that President Joe Biden has asked his team to look at the option of lifting some tariffs on Chinese imports.

People no longer speculate that the Federal Reserve might hike interest rates by 75 basis points and have backtracked a bit from a 50-bps hike in September, which also has boosted sentiment, Chandler said.

The major US stock indexes rose, as did the big bourses for Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, all closing up 1% or higher.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.92% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.35%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.08% after briefly dipping lower. The S&P 500 gained 0.20% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.25%. Growth shares rose 0.3%, or more than double the 0.1% advance in value stocks.

US Treasury yields rose as the market prepared for the sale of $96 billion in debt this week and ahead of data on Friday, June 10, expected to show US inflation is still running hot.

The consumer price index is expected to have gained 0.7% last month, compared with 0.3% in April, with annual inflation unchanged at 8.3%, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

The three US debt auctions this week are likely to push yields higher as banks and investors prepare to absorb the issuance.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 8.5 bps at 3.040%, the first time the benchmark’s yields have topped 3% in almost three weeks.

At the ECB meeting on Thursday, President Christine Lagarde is considered certain to confirm an end to bond-buying this month and a first rate increase in July, though the jury is out on whether that will be 25 or 50 bps, as some investment banks ramped up their expectations.

Money markets are priced for 130 bps of rate increases by year-end, with a 50-bps move at a single meeting fully priced in by October.

A high number would only add to expectations of aggressive tightening by the Fed next week, with markets already priced for half-point increases in June and July and almost 200 bps by the end of the year.

The dollar index rose 0.274%, with the euro down 0.23% at $1.0694. The yen weakened 0.73% at $131.85 and sterling rose 0.32% at $1.2528.

Oil prices were largely unchanged in choppy trade, buoyed by Saudi Arabia raising its July crude prices but amid doubts that a higher output target for OPEC+ producers would ease tight supply.

US crude futures settled down 37 cents at $118.50 a barrel and Brent fell 21 cents to settle at $119.51.

Gold prices slid, pressured by an uptick in the dollar and Treasury yields.

US gold futures settled down 0.4% at $1,843.70 an ounce. – Rappler.com