Oscars 2014 predictions: Who will win?

THE OSCARS. The race is on for the coveted statue, as seen in this photograph from 2012. Photo by Paul Buck/EPA

MANILA, Philippines – This year’s Oscar race sees a strange cross between high-budget blockbusters and small-sized productions, but even with Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave being a predictable favorite, it’s possible we’ll see some startling surprises come awards night.

Best Picture

It’s worth noting that only 3 of the 9 nominees aren’t rooted in real world events, but even those that prefer fiction over fact still capture a profound sense of truth. But when it comes down to the Academy’s grand prize, 12 Years a Slave takes the crown when it comes to truth-telling. It would be a clear upset if American Hustle or The Wolf of Wall Street were to take the top prize, but Gravity is easily the closest contender against Steve McQueen’s film on slavery. Though 12 Years a Slave may not be as technically groundbreaking as Gravity, 12 Years does tackle themes that the Academy would be remiss not to recognize.

What Will Win: 12 Years a Slave

What Could Win: Gravity

What I Want to Win: 12 Years a Slave

Nominees

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Nebraska
Philomena
Dallas Buyers Club
12 Years a Slave
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
Her

Best Director

There’s definitely some top tier talent in this year’s lineup of nominees, but outside of David O’ Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street), the other filmmakers aren’t Academy Awards regulars. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), of course, is a favorite, given his film’s performance in the other shows. The Academy might also give a well-deserved nod to Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity) for putting together a film that arguably redefined the cinematic experience.

Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Who could win: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Whom I want to win: Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Nominees

David O. Russell for American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street) may have given an electrifying performance, but there’s tough competition in Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) in the running. Bruce Dern (Nebraska) winning would be an exciting, though well-deserved, upset, particularly as a nod of recognition as the oldest actor in the category. But McConaughey is still the clear favorite to win here, especially after transforming completely to play the street-smart AIDs patient Ron Woodroof, undoubtedly the best part of Dallas Buyers Club.

Who will win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who could win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)

Whom I want to win: Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Nominees

Christian Bale for American Hustle
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

Giving Meryl Streep (August: Osage County) another Oscar seems only redundant at this point, but Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) is in prime position to make sure that doesn’t happen. Blanchett’s transformation into the delusional and self-destructive Jasmine is what makes up a majority of Woody Allen’s film. Still, it would be hard not to recognize Amy Adams’ performance as con artist Sydney Prosser in American Hustle. Sandra Bullock (Gravity) walking away with a prize would be a definite upset.

Who will win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Who could win: Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Whom I want to win: Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Nominees

Amy Adams for American Hustle
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Judi Dench for Philomena
Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor

The Best Supporting Actor category is lined with some obvious choices, but the inclusion of Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips) rocks the otherwise predictable boat when it comes to the nominees. But despite Abdi’s captivating performance as a Somalian pirate, his lack of acting credentials might ultimately hurt his chances for the trophy. On the other hand, Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) is favored to win. But physical transformations aside, Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave) is just as deserving of the accolade, playing a villainous slave master with nuance that made him more than the film’s indignant antagonist.

Who will win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Who could win: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Whom I want to win: Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

Nominees:

Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years A Slave
Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress

Without a doubt, Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) is favored to take the trophy, regardless of her screen time in the movie as the battered slave, Patsey. Although it seems clichéd to give out awards to victimized characters, there is an unmistakable force to Nyong’o’s performance, despite her having only a few scenes in the film. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) and June Squibb (Nebraska) are the closest challengers to Nyong’o’s win, but even they appear to place a far second and third.

Who will win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Who could win: Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Whom I want to win: Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
June Squibb for Nebraska

– Rappler.com

Zig Marasigan is a freelance screenwriter and director who believes that cinema is the cure for cancer. Follow him on Twitter at @zigmarasigan.

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Oscars 2014 predictions: Who will win?

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