For the first time in several years, there’s real suspense in the Oscars best actress race.

When the Academy Awards hands out its golden trophies this Sunday evening, April 25, in Los Angeles (Monday morning, April 26, Manila time), the cliffhanger portion will be when the best actress winner envelope is opened.

There is no clear frontrunner among the contenders. Unlike in previous years, no actress has swept the best actress category in the major awards shows leading to the Oscars.

Instead, the awards bodies gave the prize to different actresses. Golden Globes, which traditionally kicks off the awards season, presented the best actress prize to Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday.

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards chose Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Critics Choice Awards decided on Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Awards crowned Frances McDormand for Nomadland. Vanessa Kirby, the remaining best actress nominee for Pieces of a Woman, was thought to be the favorite to win BAFTA.

So who will win the hotly-contested Academy Awards category this year?

I am predicting that it’s a toss up between Viola and Frances. If Viola triumphs for her gritty portrayal of Gertrude “Ma” Rainey, known as the Mother of the Blues and who reigned in the early 20th century, she’ll be the second black actress after Halle Berry to bag this honor.

Photo by Ruben V. Nepales

The best actor derby is not as suspenseful.

If heavy favorite, the late Chadwick Boseman, does win as a virtuoso trumpet player in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, he will be the first actor to cinch a posthumous Academy statuette on his first nomination. Expect an emotional acceptance speech by Chadwick’s widow, Simone Ledward Boseman.

But if Anthony Hopkins, the oldest best actor contender at 83, triumphs for his nuanced depiction of a man with dementia in The Father, he will also make history as the Academy’s oldest best actor winner.

Photo by Ruben V. Nepales

If Riz Ahmed, compelling as a punk metal drummer in Sound of Metal or Steven Yeun, acclaimed as the patriarch of a Korean-American family in Minari, wins, it will be historic. Riz and Steven are the Academy’s first Muslim and first Asian-American best actor nominees, respectively.

Also in the best actor race is Gary Oldman, who plays writer Herman J. Mankiewicz, credited for writing Citizen Kane with Orson Welles, in Mank.

In the best supporting actress competition, if Yuh-Jung Youn, the delightfully scene stealing grandmother in Minari, prevails, she will be the first Korean to bag the honor.

The other two frontrunners are Maria Bakalova, who plays Borat’s gutsy daughter Tutar in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and Glenn Close, a tough-love grandma in Hillbilly Elegy. Believe it or not, the terrific Glenn has never won an Oscar. This is her 8th nomination.

Photo by Ruben V. Nepales

Also up for best supporting actress are Olivia Colman, a patient daughter in The Father, and Amanda Seyfried, as 1920s-1930s actress Marion Davies in Mank.

All bets are on Daniel Kaluuya, who has dominated the best supporting actor derby this awards season as Fred Hampton, head of the Illinois chapter of the Black Panther Party, in Judas and the Black Messiah.

Daniel, LaKeith Stanfield as the guilt-ridden snitch (also in Judas and the Black Messiah) and Leslie Odom as singer Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami mark the first time that there are three black best supporting actor contenders in the same year.

Paul Raci may pull a surprise as the kindly leader of a sober house for deaf people in the riveting Sound of Metal. Also in the running is Sacha Baron Cohen as activist Abbie Hoffman in The Trial of the Chicago 7.

If Viola or Andra, Chadwick, Yuh-Jung, and Daniel emerge as victors, it will be the first time in the Academy’s history that the four acting category winners are people of color.

Nomadland’s Chloe Zhao has swept all the best director prizes in this awards season so get ready for the immigrant filmmaker to make Academy history – first Asian woman, first Chinese woman, and first woman of color to win this male-dominated field.

Still courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.

The Beijing-born director will be only the second female winner. Kathryn Bigelow is the Oscars first woman best director awardee for The Hurt Locker in 2010.

Chloe’s fellow nominees are Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round).

Will H.E.R. be the first Filipina-American to cinch the Academy’s best original song prize? The singer-songwriter, whose mom is a Pinay, is nominated for “Fight for You” (from Judas and the Black Messiah), which she sang and composed with Dernst Emile II and Tiara Thomas.

Photo courtesy of Warner Bros.

The awards prognosticators, however, have Io si (Seen), written by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini and from Sophia Loren’s The Life Ahead, as being favored to win.

These are my winner predictions in some of the remaining categories: international feature (Another Round), animated feature (Soul, directed by Pete Docter and Dana Murray), original screenplay (The Trial of the Chicago 7, Aaron Sorkin), adapted screenplay (Nomadland, Chloe Zhao – another historic win) and original score (Soul, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste).

As for the evening’s plum prize, best picture, I predict another victory for Nomadland, Chloe’s lyrical portrait of modern-day van-dwelling wanderers and outsiders. The Mount Holyoke College and New York University alumna will make history as a woman of color producer of the Academy’s best picture winner.

The other best picture nominees are The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

Still courtesy of Searchlight Pictures.

Among the announced presenters as I write this are Angela Bassett, Halle Berry, Bong Joon Ho, Don Cheadle, Bryan Cranston, Laura Dern, Harrison Ford, Regina King, Marlee Matlin, Rita Moreno, Joaquin Phoenix, Brad Pitt, Reese Witherspoon, Renée Zellweger, and Zendaya.

The show will be held in two venues for the first time. The 93rd Oscars will be staged simultaneously at the historic Union Station in downtown Los Angeles and the show’s home for many years, Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center in Hollywood.

Watch for my coverage on Twitter (@nepalesruben) of the Oscars which will be televised live in more than 225 countries and territories worldwide.

As a Rappler columnist, I will participate in the Oscars Virtual Media Center, dubbed by the Academy as “the largest press corps in the history of the Oscars, representing hundreds of media outlets from all over the world.” – Rappler.com