MANILA, Philippines – Before the start of the American Idol finals, Rappler has tracked some significant swings in online social sentiment for the two finalists with Phillip Phillips showing a huge spike in positive sentiment.
Socialmention.com showed a drop in Jessica Sanchez’s positive sentiment. From a high of 15:1 on Tuesday, it was down to 11:1. Jessica’s passion score was also down from a high of 56%, it is now down to 49%.
Even more dramatic is socialmention.com’s track of Jessica’s twitter handle (@jsanchezAI11) which has shown a huge drop in sentiment – from a high of 30:1 on Sunday to this morning’s 16:1. There has been a steady decline in sentiment together with a decline in passion for the 16 year old finalist.
Phillip showed huge spike in sentiment – from his average of 3:1 over the past days, his sentiment score was 6:1 while his passion score remained constant. Phillip’s twitter handle (@pphillipAI11) has shown a dramatic rise a few hours before the show – registering 25:1. This is his highest sentiment score since we started tracking these last Saturday. His passion score however is at its lowest – at 11%.
With 90 minutes to go before the start of the finals, Phillip led Jessica in sentiment ratio (25:1 vs. 16:1) while Jessica led in passion scores (32% vs. 11%). One aspect that is now figuring prominently is their reach score. Reach is the number of unique individuals that are mentioning these finalists.
Today’s reach scores also favor Phillip (57%) over Jessica (40%). This is consistent with the passion score finding (which is a measure of the number of times a finalist is mentioned). Passion scores are high if you have a small group of individuals who mention someone very often – in this case Jessica.
American Idol allows multiple votes cast by the same person for a finalist.
Jessica’s passion score could overcome her reach disadvantage. However, Phillip’s significant sentiment score shows a growing and wide base of positive sentiment.
Sentiment140.com showed that Phillip has almost eliminated the negative sentiment that he has had over the past days while Jessica has stayed at her average. As of Wednesday morning Manila time, they were statistically tied with Jessica having only 2% negatives and Phillip with 4% negatives. In terms of the number of positive mentions, Phillip is now leading Jessica.
Finally, zabaresearch.com showed Jessica continuing to lead Phillip in social media followers – both finalists have had significant growth over the past few days but one is quickly reminded that Jessica’s follower base includes folks from outside the US.
The finals performance itself will be the final decision point that tips the audience in favor of their favorite candidate. Phillip has managed to eliminate Jessica’s sentiment advantage leading up to today’s finals.
Both candidates are now neck and neck with Jessica registering a small but passionate group of followers online while Phillip has a wider but less passionate group.
Online measurement seems to now be favoring Phillip by a small margin. One needs to slightly discount the volume of Jessica’s fans due to the number of possible fans outside of the US and its territories.
Today’s show (and the subsequent voting) promises to be a nail-biter. The best of luck to both finalists! Whatever the results, both finalists are certified stars. – Rappler.com
Click on the links below for previous social media predictions.