Fears, hopes as Fil-Brits take wait and see stance on Brexit fallout

LONDON, United Kingdom – The fallout of the British exit (Brexit) from the European Union remains a big unknown weeks after the historic EU referendum on June 23, an uncertainty that has stoked hopes and fears among the Filipino diaspora.

The Brexit process cannot begin until the ruling Conservative Party elects in October the replacement of Prime Minister David Cameron, who resigned after failing to persuade UK to vote to stay. Changes in trade and immigration laws are expected. 

The son of Filipino and Iranian immigrants to the UK, 24-year-old Iman Forouzan is upset because he fears that he will lose out on potential jobs. The fresh law graduate studied EU law and has contemplated working in Germany, but is afraid that Brexit will mean British citizens like him can no longer travel, live, and work as easily in continental Europe. 

“If I were to invoke my right to free movement to go to Germany to work, by EU right they cannot discriminate against me. You cannot turn me away. If we pull out of EU, it may become a bit more difficult,” he told Rappler. 

The British economy was immediately hit as the sterling plunged to its lowest level, and ratings agencies downgraded UK’s credit outlook. But Forouzan is not concerned so much about these, confident that the economy will bounce back soon enough. It is Brexit’s impact on immigration that will be long-term, he said. 

Like most young voters, Forouzan voted to remain in the EU. It is the older British voters who wanted out. Forouzan‘s Filipino mother was inclined to vote out, but he successfully persuaded her to change her mind.

The end of free movement?

Free movement of people and trade is the heart of the EU, composed of 28 countries that agree to follow common economic and political arrangements.  Brexit means the UK will have to rewrite its immigration and trade laws.

Aimee Alado, a Filipino lawyer who migrated to the UK in 2005, regrets the impending return to those days when it was very expensive to travel to another European country. “Before the single market was in full operation, traveling to another EU country was very expensive. It cost me £500 to go to Finland. You can go there now for just 30 quids,” she said. 

These are the costs the UK may have to pay for in seeking to limit the entry of other European nationals, one of the key promises Brexit figureheads made during the referendum campaign. It has sparked fears among EU nationals  living and working in the UK – among them with Filipino origins – despite assurances  that they will keep their jobs.

Less money to send to the Philippines?

University student Michael Needham, the son of a British national and a Filipino immigrant, said Filipinos who are depending on remittances from the UK should expect to receive less. 

“I think a big issue is that the British pound will be weaker versus the US dollar, meaning, remittances will be less valuable back in the Philippines,” said Needham. 

Like Forouzan, he is counting on the economy to bounce back. But he knows that this will take a while. 

Alado is not so confident about the UK economy, however, especially after hearing news that international companies are withholding investments in the UK. 

“If there is a recession, it means less spending capacity for me. If I’m going to send money back home, it is going to be half of what I used to send,” she added.

Easier for Filipinos to migrate to UK?

If there is a positive note, Needham said it is possible that the loss of EU nationals could be the gain of Filipino citizens who want to migrate to the UK. It could mean better chances for Filipinos because they will have the same status as job-seekers from other EU countries. 

“There is a niche minority  – the EU citizens in the UK. In theory, those with EU citizenship can expect that their job security will decrease. They may experience cuts….For Filipinos who are coming over and are still looking to get citizenships, they might see a more of a level playing field,” said Needham.

Forouzan and Alado are not as optimistic as Needham, however. They are afraid that new immigration laws will become stricter.

But all of these are mere speculations. “The situation is going to be as is for the next two years. It would really depend on the outcome of UK’s negotiations with the EU,” said Alado. 

But she is afraid the EU will punish UK for leaving. “What makes you think that it is not going to punished? They will have to set a precedent to other members countries so they will not follow UK in leaving the EU,” said Alado. 

Understanding the leavers

Forouzan, Alado, and Needham said they understand why other voters wanted to leave the EU. It is not a perfect organization, but they believe that the UK is better off staying in.

“I had formed my opinion that there are some pros and cons with being with EU. But I believe that UK staying in means we would remain in a stronger position in the world stage,” said Forouzan.

The UK has enjoyed “the best of both worlds,” he added. The UK joined the EU single market, but was allowed to keep its own currency instead of adopting the euro like everybody else. It was also allowed to opt out of the Schengen zone, an area that requires only one visa, allowing it certain control on the entry of people. 

A number of Filipino-British healthcare workers also voted out based on a promise that Brexit will mean more funding for the health sector. Brexit figureheads have reportedly reneged on this promise, however. 

Forouzan believes many voters also voted to leave to hit back at British politicians, making it a referendum on the current government instead of UK’s membership in the EU. 

Grudgingly, Fourozan, Alado, and Needham said they accept the result of the referendum. 

“To play it politely, World War 3 has not happened. I may not be happy by the result. I am heartbroken. But this is the voice of the pople,” said Forouzan. 

“As much as I wanted us to remain, you have to respect democracy,” said Needham. 

“There’s not much we can do about it. The British public has spoken. I would love to be proven wrong,” said Alado. – Rappler.com