Climate change will boost the odds up to 14-fold for extremely rare, hard-to-predict tropical cyclones for parts of Australia, the United States, and Dubai by 2100. The research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, used a new approach to predict the frequency and intensity of rare superstorms dubbed “grey swans”. The analysis by Ning Lin of Princeton University and a colleague showed that surges generated by grey swans striking Tampa or Cairns could reach 6 meters (20 feet), and 4 meters for Dubai. The damage caused by grey swans, as with all cyclones and hurricanes, is mostly from storm surges, which can be enhanced by higher water levels and tides.
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