Even with Aquino endorsement, more prefer Poe over Roxas

MANILA, Philippines – Carried by the perceived strength of an endorsement by Benigno Aquino III, Senator Grace Poe will be chosen by more people as president in 2016 over Interior Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas II.

Nationwide, 70% will select her compared to 51% who will choose Roxas. But even with a presidential endorsement, 24% said they would not vote for Poe compared to a bigger percentage of 42% who said they would not vote for Roxas. About 3% of those surveyed said an endorsement from Aquino would have no effect on their choice of Poe, while 4% said it would have no effect on their choice of Roxas.

Roxas, a trusted ally of Aquino, is being eyed as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate so that reforms initiated by the administration would have continuity, party officials have said. They had pinned their hopes on the strength of an Aquino endorsement premised on the President’s high approval ratings.

Pulse Asia conducted a survey from June 24-July 2, 2014 on first choice presidential preference, given a presidential endorsement.

(Click on the circles below and hover over the shaded portions of the wheel to see actual numbers)

Binay still far ahead

The same survey also showed Vice President Jejomar Binay still solidly ahead of possible contenders in the 2016 presidential race. In a list of 11 names, 41% said they would vote for Binay – slightly higher than his 40% rating in the Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan Survey held on March 19-26, 2014.

A March 2014 survey by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) showed Binay with a 73% net satisfaction rating which was described as “excellent.” 

Binay’s slightly improved presidential preference rating was in contrast to Poe’s whose previous rating of 15% dropped to 12% in the June-July Pulse Asia survey. In March, Poe said she was not ready for the presidency and that she was not running. She has managed to pass one major bill at the Senate, the Freedom of Information bill.

She has two other bills awaiting the President’s signature – Strengthening the Dangerous Drugs Act, and the Free Mobile Disasters Alert Act.

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada was a distant third choice with 9%; he was not listed in the previous survey. On fourth place were 3 officials who each got a rating of 7% – Roxas, Senators Chiz Escudero and Miriam Defensor Santiago, who announced on July 2 she had lung cancer.

Senator Bongbong Marcos and Senate Majority Leader Alan Peter Cayetano each got 5%. Secretary-general of the Nacionalista Party, Cayetano had announced he wants to be president.

Opposition Senator Ramon Revilla Jr, presently detained for plunder and graft in relation to his Priority Development Assistance Fund which he allegedly diverted to fictitious non-governmental organizations, got a 2% rating (lower than his previous 3%), while Senate President Franklin Drilon, and former Senator Dick Gordon each got 1%.

Binay’s popularity increased in the National Capital Region or NCR (improved from 38% to 44%), followed by Mindanao (up from 37% to 42%), and the Balance of Luzon (slightly lower from 44% to 41%). During the survey period, he boosted his supporters from class E (from 34% to 40%). He lost followers from classes ABC where in the previous survey 47% said they would vote for him; this dropped to 36%. The percentage of voters from class D remained unchanged at 42%.

Without a presidential endorsement, Poe still fared better than Roxas, who is expected to be the President’s hand-picked choice. The ruling party however has kept mum about who its presidential contender will be, as the Aquino administration has found itself mired in the controversial Disbursement Acceleration Program, portions of which the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional.

Satisfaction ratings of Aquino have also reached a historic low since he became president in 2010. From 66% in March, satisfaction dropped to 55% in June, according to SWS. His trust ratings have remained unchanged at 53%.

While Poe was strongest in the Visayas and weakest in Mindanao, Roxas was equally strong in the Visayas and Mindanao, but weakest in NCR. Estrada, for his part, was strong in Mindanao and the Balance of Luzon, and weakest in NCR.

Vice presidential preferences

If Poe is a weak presidential contender without the endorsement of Aquino, she is a strong candidate for vice president: 26% said they would vote for her, compared to 22% who said they would choose Escudero; 14% said they would opt for Cayetano; 8% said they would prefer Marcos, while 6% said they will go for Senator Antonio Trillanes IV.

Senator Jinggoy Estrada, who is said to have been a possible runningmate of Binay, got 5% like Drilon. Estrada, like his Senate buddy Revilla, is detained on plunder and graft charges at the Philippine National Police Custodial Center.

Batangas Governor Rosa Vilma Santos-Recto got 4% like Revilla, while Camarines Sur Representative Leni Robredo, also of the Liberal Party like Roxas, got 1%. – Rappler.com