Mar surges in SWS ‘top-of-mind’ poll for 2016

Carmela Fonbuena
Mar surges in SWS ‘top-of-mind’ poll for 2016
In a survey from November 27-December 1, SWS asked 1,800 respondents nationwide to name 3 persons who could succeed President Benigno Aquino III

MANILA, Philippines – Liberal Party president-on-leave Interior Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas II surged in the new Social Weather Stations (SWS) top-of-mind poll, where he’s behind Vice President Jejomar Binay and Senator Grace Poe as the top 3 contenders in the 2016 presidential elections.  

In a survey that asked respondents to name 3 people who should succeed President Benigno Aquino III, Binay came out the runaway winner. The embattled vice president pulled away with 37% of respondents naming him as their choice for 2016, based on an exclusive report of Business World published Monday, December 22.

Senator Grace Poe got 21% while Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II got 19%.

Roxas is the big winner in the survey, where he finds himself among the top contenders again. He has been lagging behind in surveys earlier released by rival firm Pulse Asia. In Pulse Asia’s last survey, he ranked only 6th with his 6% support.  

Binay has consistently topped presidential surveys. But he suffered a decline in recent months due to corruption allegations hurled against him and his family. (READ: The Jojo Binay that Mercado knew)

“I am grateful for  the kind  recognition of  my  worthiness  to assume the country’s highest public office,” Binay said later in a statement. 

Poe’s 21% in the survey, on the other hand, is not a big improvement from her 18% in the earlier survey conducted by Pulse Asia. (READ: Poe surges in Nov survey, Binay drops by 5%).

The neophyte senator’s rising numbers however have emboldened supporters to push for her presidential run in 2016. (READ: A graceful acceleration). 

This will likely complicate matters for Roxas, who is banking on a presidential endorsement. The two are allies of President Benigno Aquino III, although Roxas is also a friend and close adviser of the President.

Different picture

By allowing respondents to name 3 persons, the SWS survey could not be used to validate a different picture painted by the earlier Pulse Asia survey conducted November 14-20 which gave respondents a list of names and made them choose one contender. 

What the SWS shows are the top-of-mind candidates. A breakdown of the survey would show who among the contenders share a support base and are likely to erode each other’s numbers.

Roxas and Poe, for example, are both being eyed as the administration candidate.

The survey methodology also allows a respondent to name Binay, Poe and Mar together in one survey form. 

The earlier Pulse Asia survey showed Binay dropping to 26% and Poe surging to 18% to make the vice-president’s lead within the range of 2 points to 14 points, based on the survey’s error margin of 3 points. 

Roxas was only chosen by 6% of the respondents, ranking 6th out of 14 names. 

Other choices

The SWS polled 1,800 respondents nationwide from November 27-December 1.

SWS asked the question: “According to the Constitution, the term of Pres. Noynoy Aquino is up to 2016 only, and there will be an election for a new president in May 2016. Who do you think are the good leaders who should succeed Pres. Aquino as president? You may give up to three names.”

The online report of Business World does not show the regional breakdown of the SWS survey. 

Tailing Binay, Poe and Roxas in the SWS survey are the following:

  • Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (10%)
  • Senator Francis Joseph “Chiz” G. Escudero (9%)
  • Former President and now Manila Mayor Joseph E. Estrada (9%)
  • Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte (5%)
  • Senator Antonio F. Trillanes IV (5%)
  • Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. (3%)
  • Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano (3%)
  • Former senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. (2%)
  • Senator Ramon “Bong” B. Revilla Jr (2%)
  • Presidential Assistant for Rehabilitation and Recovery Panfilo M. Lacson (2%)


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