COVID-19

Downward trend of COVID-19 cases in ‘NCR Plus’ remains ‘fragile’ – DOH official

Bonz Magsambol

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Downward trend of COVID-19 cases in ‘NCR Plus’ remains ‘fragile’ – DOH official

CROWD. Commuters crowd a sidewalk along EDSA in Quezon City.

Rappler

'Magkaroon tayo ng super-spreader events, it's possible naman na dadami na naman or magkakaroon tayo ng spike in cases,' says Dr. Alethea de Guzman of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau

While Metro Manila and nearby provinces Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite have seen a decline in COVID-19 cases, an official from the Department of Health (DOH) said that this trend remains “fragile,” which means that any super-spreader event could trigger a spike in cases.

In a press briefing on Tuesday, June 15, Dr. Alethea de Guzman of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau said that the current downward trend remains fragile, as shown by the minor uptick in cases in the past month and in some areas after a slow decline.

“Magkaroon tayo ng super-spreader events, it’s possible naman na dadami na naman or magkakaroon tayo ng spike in cases,” she said. (Once super-spreader events occur, it’s possible that we would have a spike in cases again.)

De Guzman noted that the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases in virus epicenter Metro Manila has dropped to 833, which is way lower than the 5,535 seven-day average during the peak on March 29 to April 4.

Aside from the strict implementation of minimum health standards in “NCR Plus,” vaccination has also helped bring the infections down, though De Guzman said that they are still analyzing the effects of vaccination in the number of cases.

Screenshot of DOH presentation
PH’s COVID-19 cases ‘plateauing’

During the briefing, De Guzman said that the country’s COVID-19 cases have “stalled, and plateauing trend continues.”

Seven-day average cases in the country eased down to 6,609 from June 17 to 13, almost half of the 10,945 average cases during the peak from April 9 to 15.

On Monday, June 14, the DOH urged local government units to take measures to ensure COVID-19 cases are detected and isolated within five days, after an increase in infections was observed nationwide in recent weeks.

Based on DOH data, the average time it takes to detect and isolate cases on a national level is about 6.3 days. In Metro Manila, the average is at 7.11 days. Vergeire said the data excluded “outliers” where some cases took months from the date of onset of symptoms to isolate. 

The government has placed Metro Manila and Bulacan under general community quarantine (GCQ) “with some restrictions” until the end of June, while the rest of the so-called “NCR Plus” will be under GCQ “with heightened restrictions.”

As of Monday, the Philippines has 1,322,053 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 22,845 deaths and 1,240,112 recoveries. Of the total, 59,096 are active cases or currently sick. – Rappler.com

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Bonz Magsambol

Bonz Magsambol covers the Philippine Senate for Rappler.