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MANILA, Philippines – Daily COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may reach up to around 17,105 by end-July if Filipinos continue their current level of compliance with minimum public health standards (MPHS), like wearing masks, washing hands, and physical distancing, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Tuesday, June 28.
Citing projections from the FASSSTER (Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler), a disease surveillance tool adopted by the DOH, health authorities reported that compliance to MPHS has dropped by 20% to 22%.
The DOH also reported a projection of around 3,800 to 5,300 new cases in the middle of July if the compliance rate stays steady.
“Based on updated projections from FASSSTER, if mobility continues to increase, compliance to MPHS continues to reduce (20-22% reduction) and booster uptake is maintained at this low level, we MAY see 3,800 to 5,300 daily cases nationally by mid-July,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a message to reporters.
In a Tuesday briefing, the DOH reported that COVID-19 cases continued to rise across all regions in the Philippines, with Metro Manila showing a steep increase. Other areas in the country remain to have less than 150 cases a day.
Despite the case increase in Metro Manila, its new-normal Alert Level 1 status was extended from July 1 to 15 earlier on Tuesday.
Health authorities noted that despite the increase in cases, severe and critical cases remain below 1,000. Vergeire said that health care utilization rates remained at low-risk in majority of areas in the country.
“Ang infection ay nandito (The infection is here). COVID-19 is here to stay. What would be most important for all of us would be that cases are mild, cases might be asymptomatic, there are less severe and critical [cases], and our hospitals will be manageable,” Vergeire said on how the DOH frames weekly case bulletin – with less focus on the case numbers, and more emphasis on how many are severe and critical, and if the Philippine health system can handle the situation.
“That’s a real indication that we are moving more towards endemicity – that even if cases are increasing… there is almost no effect on our healthcare system, which means that we can start to treat this as an endemic disease [and] the disruption in our lives can be minimized,” said infectious disease expert Dr. Edsel Salvana on Tuesday’s briefing.
Salvana added that even as the virus evolves, as seen with the Omicron subvariants, vaccines remain to be effective against severe disease.
“Even if we don’t have updated vaccines, we don’t expect that even if cases will increase, our healthcare system will not be overwhelmed,” Salvana said in a mix of English and Filipino.
Vergeire said that the Philippines is not yet in negotiations for acquiring next-generation vaccines.
New cases of subvariants detected
On Tuesday, the DOH also reported new detected cases of subvariants of the more contagious Omicron variant of COVID-19. There are 50 newly detected cases of BA.5, 11 new cases of BA 2.12.1, and 2 additional BA.4 cases. Most of them were detected in Western Visayas.
Of the 50 BA.5 cases, 41 were tagged as recovered as of Tuesday’s briefing. Four were undergoing isolation, while the situation of the remaining five were still being verified. One reported having mild symptoms, while the DOH was still verifying the status of the other 49. They were detected in Metro Manila and Western Visayas.
For the 11 BA.2.12.1 cases detected in Western Visayas, 10 were tagged as recovered while one was still undergoing isolation. Vaccination status and exposure history of these cases had yet to be verified.
The two new BA.4 cases, also in Western Visayas, were tagged as recovered. One had mild symptoms, while the DOH verified the status of the other.
The running total of the cases of the new subvariants is as follows:
- BA 2.12.1 – 43
- BA.4 – 3
- BA.5 – 93
Vergeire earlier attributed the entry of Omicron subvariants as one of the reasons behind the current increase in cases. These Omicron offshoots are causing alarm due to spike in cases worldwide.
The Philippines has begun administering second boosters to health workers, senior citizens, and the immunocompromised, and first boosters to immunocompromised adolescents aged 12 to 17. – Rappler.com
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