Marcos is VP front-runner in ABS-CBN survey
Marcos is VP front-runner in ABS-CBN survey
(UPDATED) Camarines Sur Representative Leni Robredo and Senator Francis Escudero are statistically tied for second place

MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr has taken the top spot in the vice presidential race, according to the results of the latest ABS-CBN survey released on Tuesday, April 12.

The ABS-CBN survey – conducted by Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated from March 29-April 3 – showed Marcos with a voter preference rating of 28%.

This is a 3-percentage points gain from his rating in the March 15-20 ABS-CBN poll.

Camarines Sur Representative Leni Robredo, the administration candidate, and erstwhile front-runner Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero were in a statistical tie for second place.

Robredo enjoyed 1-percentage point gain with 22% while Escudero’s rating slipped to 21% – a 4-percentage point drop – compared to their previous numbers.

Senator Alan Peter Cayetano, running mate of current presidential poll front-runner Rodrigo Duterte, gained 1 percentage point with 15%, for third place.

Senator Antonio Trillanes IV had a 5%-rating, up by 1 percentage point, while Senator Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan II lost 1 percentage point, putting him at the bottom of the survey rankings with 4%.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said that just over a month before the May 9 elections, 5% of voters still had no vice presidential candidate.

Data from Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated

Marcos top choice in NCR, Class ABC, Class D

Marcos kept his lead among Metro Manila voters with 47%, a 6-percentage point jump from his March 15-20 rating, according to the report.

He is also the leading vice presidential candidate among voters in Class ABC with  39%, up by 4 percentage points; and Class D, 29%, a 2-percentage point gain.

Robredo remained the top choice in the Visayas with 36%, a 2-percentage point gain; and the poorest Class E with 26%, up by 3 percentage points.

Marcos and Escudero are also among the leading candidates among Class E, both with  21% – a 4-percentage point gain for Marcos, and a 4-percentage point loss for Escudero.

Cayetano is the top choice in Mindanao with 30%, a 2-percentage point gain, while Marcos and Escudero are statistically tied in the rest of Luzon: Marcos had a rating of 34%, up by 2 percentage points; Escudero got 25%, a 4-percentage point drop.

The survey results also showed that “a sizeable plurality (29%) of those with a first choice for vice president” named Escudero as their second choice, in case their primary candidate dropped from the race.

Data from Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated

The next back-up choice is Cayetano (16%), while Marcos and Robredo were statistically tied for third place at 12% and 11%, respectively.

The same percentage of voters – 6% – named Trillanes and Honasan as alternative vice-presidential candidate.

“Two in 10 voters are not supporting any second-choice candidate for vice-president,” Holmes said.

‘Magic 12’

The survey results showed the following senatorial candidates in the probable winners’ circle, among the 50 aspirants in the Senate race:

  • Senate President Franklin Drilon, Senator Vicente Sotto III: 1st-2nd places
  • Former senators Francis Pangilinan, Panfilo Lacson: 3rd-4th places
  • Former senator Miguel Zubiri : 5th-6th places
  • Former justice secretary Leila de Lima: 5th-9th places
  • Senators Sergio Osmeña III and Ralph Recto, Sarangani Representative Manny Pacquiao: 6th-12th places
  • Former senator Richard Gordon, former Akbayan party list representative Risa Hontiveros, former TESDA chief Joel Villanueva: 7th-12th places

Data from Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated

Holmes said that as of April 3, only 34% of voters have a complete slate or are naming 12 candidates they would vote for in the Senate race.

He added: “With less than six weeks to go before the May 2016 elections, registered voters are identifying a mean of 7 and a median of 8 of their favored candidates for senator in May 2016.”

The nationwide survey, conducted among 4,000 registered voters, has an error margin of ±1.5% at the 95% confidence level.

Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ±4.6% for Metro Manila, ±2.3% for the rest of Luzon and ±3.4% for Visayas and ±3.3 for Mindanao. 

During the survey period, among the major issues were the violent dispersal of a farmer’s protest in Kidapawan City that killed two people and injured over a hundred others, the hacking of data from the Commission on Elections site, the Senate probe into the Bangladesh bank heist, and the release of comics depicting part of the life of Roxas, including his experience during and after Super Typhoon Yolanda hit parts of the Visayas. –

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