MANILA, Philippines - The "60-30-10" ratio alleged to be the formula used in supposed systematic cheating in the May 2013 senatorial elections does not apply to all 25 highly urbanized areas in the country.
Ratios differ in voting results across individual cities, challenging notions of an alleged 60-30-10 cheating pattern.
A total of 9,160,242 registered voters – or 17.61% of the country's voter population – are in these urban areas, with 5,995,404 concentrated in NCR. They represent a substantial chunk of the country's registered voting population.
In addition to examining the regional breakdown of election results, Rappler looked at the senatorial results in cities located in the National Capital Region (NCR), as well as 8 other cities which have official certificates of canvass (COCs). The electoral histories of these cities were also a big factor in the outcome of the senatorial race in these areas.
Rappler observed the following:
1) The distribution of total votes in these 25 urbanized areas for each slate is indeed close to the 60-30-10 ratio: 58.52% for Team PNoy, 30.45% for UNA, and 11.02% for the independents. This ratio changes, however, when you start drilling down.
2) Team PNoy received 57.54% of all votes for all cities in NCR, while UNA received 30.59%. The independent candidates got the remaining 11.87%.
The ratio of total votes per slate for all cities outside the NCR is higher for Team PNoy, at 61-30-9.
3) The per-candidate share tells a different story: in NCR, Team PNoy drops to 52.22%, UNA rises to 37.01%, and the independents slide one percentage point to 10.77%.
Outside NCR, Team PNoy received 53.13%, UNA got 36.86%, and the independents, 10.01%.
It should be noted that Team PNoy had a full 12-person slate, while UNA had only 9 members. The rest were the following: 3 independent candidates; 3 each from Ang Kapatiran Party and Democratic Party of the Philippines; and one each for Bangon Pilipinas, the Makabayan Coalition, and the Social Justice Society.
4) In NCR alone, vote shares for Team PNoy range from 50.99% (obtained in Navotas City) to 60.91% (in Las Piñas City). Outside NCR, the range for Team PNoy is from 58.04% (in Baguio City) to 64.35% (in Iloilo City).
5) UNA received the largest vote share in Navotas City, with 38.73%. It is followed by Makati City (35.27%), Cagayan de Oro City (CDO, 33.09%), Iligan City (33.07%), and San Juan City (32.47%).
The per-candidate shares were almost even for Team PNoy and UNA in Makati, Navotas and San Juan. Meanwhile, the ratio was close to 53-40-7 in the two remaining cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan.
These cities (Navotas, Makati, CDO, Iligan, San Juan) delivered for two of UNA's "founding fathers" in the 2010 elections. Except in Makati City, the tandem of former president Joseph Estrada and now Vice President Jejomar Binay topped the 2010 presidential elections in these areas.
Sen Jinggoy Estrada also topped the senatorial races there, except again in Makati City, where he placed second, closely trailing Sen Miriam Defensor-Santiago.
Makati City is a known baliwick of the Binays, who have ruled the city since 1986. Binay was the top vice presidential candidate there in 2010, but his running mate Joseph Estrada only placed second in the presidential race.
6) Five cities outside NCR followed the national trend: Baguio City, Cebu City, Cagayan de Oro City, IIligan City and Davao City.
But 3 cities in the Visayas deviated from it: Iloilo City, Bacolod City, and Lapu-Lapu City. Vote shares in these cities for Team PNoy were above 62%, while per-candidate shares were over 57%.
Iloilo and Bacolod went 11-1 for Team PNoy, with only Nancy Binay making it to the Top 12. Lapu-Lapu City, meanwhile, had 10 Team PNoy candidates in the Top 12, plus UNA's Binay and Juan Miguel Zubiri.
These 3 cities, plus Cebu City and Baguio City voted for the Aquino-Roxas tandem in the 2010 presidential elections.
7) Team PNoy candidate Cynthia Villar was not in the Top 12 of every city in NCR, except in Las Piñas City, where she placed first. Wife of Sen Manuel Villar (now on his last term), she was the city's representative from 2001 to 2010.
13th placer in the national rankings, Richard Gordon of UNA was instead in the NCR cities' Top 12. Gordon was 5th overall in the region, while Villar was 14th.
Independent candidate Edward Hagedorn entered the Top 12 in 6 cities: Las Piñas, Makati, Manila, Parañaque, Pasay and San Juan.
Note: Results from Taguig City and the municipality of Pateros were merged into one COC by the Commission on Elections (Comelec).
Ateneo mathematics professor Felix Muga II of the watchdog Automated Election System Watch (AES) recently observed that an aggregate 60% of the votes went to candidates of the administration's Team PNoy slate, 30% went to candidates of the opposition UNA, and 10% to independent and third-party candidates.
Muga used the election results on the 1st to 16th official canvass reports of the Comelec.
His findings were backed up by blogger Conrad Gozalo, who crawled unofficial election results from the Rappler results page in 12-hour intervals starting May 13, 2013 at 10:00 pm. - Rappler.com
Michael Bueza is a researcher and data curator under Rappler's Research Team. He works on data about elections, governance, and the budget. He also follows the Philippine pro wrestling scene and the WWE. Michael is also part of the Laffler Talk podcast trio.