Hairline gap between Robredo, Marcos

MANILA, Philippines (28th UPDATE) –  Administration candidate Leni Robredo continued to retain her slight lead over Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr based on partial, unofficial election results from the Commission on Elections transparency server on Tuesday morning, May 10.

As of 7:55 pm with 93.79% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,740,668 (35.1%) votes while Marcos had 13,511,082 (34.5%) – or a difference of 229,586 votes.

Polling organizations had predicted this. Analyst Edmund Tayao earlier said the next vice president might just win by a "hairline" after the Social Weather Stations released survey results from May 1-3 with Marcos getting 29% and Robredo at 28%.

Marcos' lead over Robredo peaked at 938,622 votes at 8:20 pm of May 9. As of 2:08 am Tuesday*, Marcos had been ahead by 60,000 votes.

Robredo first took the lead at 3:29 am Tuesday* with 87.33% of precincts reporting, when she secured a hairline lead of 575 votes. At 3:48 am with 87.60% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 12,899,569 votes while Marcos had 12,890,683 votes – a difference of 8,886. 

Supporters of both camps launched their own online campaigns in the wee hours to root for their bets, bringing hashtags like #LabanLeni and 'Martial Law Thingy' to trend on Tuesday, May 10.

As of 6:55 pm with 93.58% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,713,139 (35.1%) votes while Marcos had 13,488,323 (34.5%) – or a difference of 224,816 votes

As of 4:40 pm with 92.77% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,605,015 (35.1%) votes while Marcos had 13,394,086 (34.5%) – or a difference of 210,929 votes

As of 3:10 pm with 92.10% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,519,046 (35.1%) votes while Marcos had 13,327,023 (34.6%) – or a difference of 192,023 votes.

As of 2:08 pm with 91.71% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,470,814 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,285,540 (34.6%) – or a difference of 184,674 votes.

As of 1:08 pm with 91.33% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,426,097 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,240,924 (34.6%) – or a difference of 185,173 votes.

As of 12:41 pm with 91.16% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,405,338 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had13,219,566 (34.6%) – or a difference of 185,772 votes.

As of 12:09 pm with 91.09% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,398,542 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,213,130 (34.6%) – or a difference of 185,412 votes.

As of 11:08 am with 90.84% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,364,461 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,194,150 (34.6%) – or a difference of 170,311 votes.

As of 10:39 am with 90.63% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,341,232 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,178,696 (34.6%) – or a difference of 162,536 votes.

As of 10:08 am with 90.45% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,317,564 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had13,161,716 (34.6%) – or a difference of 155,848 votes.

As of 9:38 am with 89.69% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,286,907 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,144,856 (34.6%) – or a difference of 142,051 votes.

As of 8:39 am with 89.69% precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,212,058 (35.0%) votes while Marcos had 13,096,831 (34.7%) – or a difference of 115,227 votes.

As of 8:17 am with 89.44% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,176,490 votes compared to the 13,076,332 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 100,158.

As of 7:38 am with 89.25% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,150,629 votes compared to the 13,062,236 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 88,393.

As of 7:08 am with 89.09% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,128,844 votes compared to the 13,047,864 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 80980.

As of 6:40 am with 88.94% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,108,176 votes compared to the 13,032,667 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 75,509.

As of 6:08 am with 88.73% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,076,453 votes compared to the 13,013,544 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 62,909.

As of 5:39 am with 88.57% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,050,115 votes compared to the 13,000,419 for Marcos Jr – a difference of 49,696.

At 5:08 am with 88.35% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 13,014,447 votes compared to Marcos' 12,977,571 – a difference of 36,876.

As of 4:48 am with 88.23% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 12,993,399 votes while Marcos had 12,964,994 – a difference of 28,405.

At 4:28 am with 88.08% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 12,970,978 votes compared to Marcos' 12,951,716 votes – a difference of 19,262.

As of 4:09 am with 87.87% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 12,939,773 votes and Marcos had 12,925,873 votes – a difference of 13,900.

At 3:48 am with 87.60% of precincts reporting, Robredo had 12,899,569 votes while Marcos had 12,890,683 votes – a difference of 8,886.

Robredo first edged ahead of Marcos at 3:29 am with 87.33% of precincts reporting, when she secured a hairline lead of 575 votes.

Earlier, as of 2:48 am with over 86.79% precincts reporting, Marcos' lead had been around 22,000 votes.

As of 2:08 am, Marcos had been ahead by 60,000 votes.

See the results as they update below. You can flip the contest card to view a graph showing progress over time.   

 

Transmission delays

Marcos' early lead may be attributed to the fact that the areas where he got the highest percentage of votes (over 65% of total votes cast for vice president), transmitted fairly early. These are Region I (Ilocos), Region II (Cagayan Valley), and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR).

Before midnight, over 80% of votes were already in from these regions.

In contrast, regions where Robredo exhibited a significant lead at the outset – the Bicol Region, the Visayas regions, and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) – experienced transmission delays. 

As of 11:40 pm, the transmission status in the Bicol Region was at 73% of total precincts, the Visayas regions was at 77%, while the ARMM was at 37%.  

As of 2:48 am of Tuesday, Robredo led the vice presidential race in the ARMM with 328,951 against Marcos' 199,401.

Among the ARMM provinces, only Sulu favored Marcos.

Meanwhile, only 32% of results for Lanao del Sur, which has 484,435 registered voters, is in. Robredo is leading in that area with 49.1% or 60,694 of total votes so far. Marcos trails behind her in this province with 21.8% or 26,974. – with reports from Gemma Bagayaua Mendoza and Wayne Manuel / Rappler.com 

* Editor's Note: We corrected the day when the lead in the vice presidential results flipped, based on data from the Comelec transparency server. It fell on a Tuesday (May 10), not a Monday.