Over a month after declaring virus epicenter Metro Manila as “low-risk” for COVID-19, the Department of Health (DOH) on Tuesday, August 3, said the capital region is back to a “high-risk” classification due to the increase in cases.

In a televised briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said Metro Manila and five other regions, namely Central Visayas, Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, and Northern Mindanao have been classified as high-risk areas due to their high average daily attack rate (ADAR).

ADAR is the number of new cases in a city or province over a two-week period, divided by the population of the city or province. ADAR is considered high risk if it is 7 and above.

Here are the ADAR numbers for the locations mentioned:

• Metro Manila – 8.96
• Central Visayas – 8.79
• Ilocos Region – 8.47
• Cagayan Valley – 7.50
• Cordillera Administrative Region – 7.48
• Northern Mindanao – 7.47

The World Health Organization asked the DOH in July to be careful in tagging the Philippines as “low risk” for the virus, as giving the public the wrong messaging could result in “lower compliance” to minimum public health standards.

The health care utilization rate in the capital region is at 46.52% and at 54.82% for the intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate. Local health officials pay close attention to ICU capacity as it indicates if many are experiencing severe COVID-19. It also measures the health system’s capacity to manage critically ill patients and prevent deaths.

Metro Manila will return to a rigid lockdown mode from August 6 to 20, with additional restrictions for the week before, to prepare for a possible surge in COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant.

The Philippines now has 216 known cases of the highly transmissible variant, but there are concerns that the actual number may be far higher, as the Philippine Genome Center is only sequencing a small percentage of the positive cases.

Of the 216 reported cases, 22% or 47 are from Metro Manila.

The Delta variant, which was first detected in India, is ravaging Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia.

To prevent further local transmission of the Delta variant, the Philippine government has also imposed travel bans from countries where it is widespread. – Rappler.com