The increase in COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) marks the start of a surge in cases as we enter the Christmas holidays, experts warned.

NCR’s reproduction number (R) – or the number of people that one COVID-19 positive case can infect – is now at 1.15 and continues to rise, according to a report by the Octa Research Group dated Monday, December 21. This is an increase from a previous R of 1.06 on December 13.

The increase in R and the rise in new cases per day in the region – from 370 during the week of December 6 to 428 during the week of December 13 – means “there is a higher risk of the virus spreading exponentially in the NCR,” Octa said in their report.

Experts have said that R needs to stay below 1 to contain virus transmission until a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available. An R greater than 1 indicates an upward trend in new cases.

The surge is still in its early stages, however, and can still be mitigated or reversed. “But to achieve this, we need to act now and act as one collectively,” Octa said. (READ: PGH, Lung Center brace for possible surge of COVID-19 cases after holidays)

Octa recommended that local government units (LGUs) intensify their testing, tracing, and isolation efforts, and implement more aggressive and stricter localized lockdowns. Local and national governments need to strictly enforce minimum health standards such as physical distancing, the wearing of face masks and face shields, proper hygiene, and discourage large gatherings.

LGUs are encouraged to enforce the current GCQ limit of 10 persons per gathering and to discourage office parties and social events. Family gatherings should be limited to immediate family only.

Meanwhile, the Philippines’ R is at 1.03, with an increase of 1,484 new daily cases during the week of December 14, compared to 1,367 during the week of December 7.

At a virtual press briefing on December 14, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said they have been coordinating with experts and modelers for projections to be guided on how to prepare for a possible surge in cases. The health department previously told private hospitals to start increasing beds for COVID-19 patients in preparation for a possible surge in coronavirus cases after the holidays.

As of Monday, December 21, the Philippines has recorded a total of 461,505 COVID-19 cases, according to the Department of Health. There are 23,341 active cases, 429,207 recovered, and 8,957 deaths. – Rappler.com