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New COVID-19 cases are surging in Cebu and experts from the OCTA research group are raising the alarm once again.
If local governments don’t get things under control quickly, Cebu City and province could see the numbers hit 400 a day, the group said in its report published on Thursday, January 28.
This was the average when Cebu City was placed under enhanced community quarantine in June.
“This number could be reached in two weeks if trends are not reversed,” OCTA said in their report. “The concern right now is the possibility that the UK B.1.1.7 variant is spreading in parts of Cebu,” the research group added.
As of this writing, the swab samples of at least 3 Filipinos who recently returned to Cebu are being sequenced at the Philippine Genome Center for the more transmissible United Kingdom variant.
Alarming numbers
According to OCTA, Cebu province – and the independent capital Cebu City – averaged 147 cases a day over the past 7 days.
Compared to the timeframe from December 11 to 17, Cebu averaged only 11 cases per day.
The reproduction number in Cebu is higher than the national average. The island is at R1.57, while the national average is at .96.
The reproduction number is the average number of people one COVID-19 positive person can infect.
The EOC reported hospitals and critical care units are below 30% occupancy rate in public hospitals and below 20% in the city’s private hospitals.
Cebu’s positivity rate for January 7 to 27 was at 6%, according to OCTA. This is higher than the 5% peg of the World Health Organization to indicate that a pandemic is under control.
OCTA noted that the positivity rate increased despite RT-PCR (swab) testing in the region increased by 10% to 2,400 tests per day.
What’s being done about it
Emergency Operations Center head Joel Garganera, a Cebu City councilor, told reporters the local government unit of Cebu City is trying to move double-time in terms of testing, contact tracing, and isolation of patients.
“Yes, our cases are rising but at the same time all individuals in the positive line list are being attended to, they’re being extracted, isolated, and those exposed [to the virus], they’re being contact traced, swabbed, and households and establishments are being [placed on] lockdown,” Garganera said.
The EOC chief said business establishments who don’t enforce health protocols “will be dealt with.”
They may face revocation of business permits or fines. “We are mindful that majority are being compliant, this is why it’s difficult to show mercy with the few who are putting many at risk,” he added.
Department of Health Central Visayas spokesperson Dr. Mary Jean Loreche told reporters that the department is “very much in control of the situation” and there is no need to move to stricter quarantine status.
Cebu City Mayor Edgar Labella also said on Wednesday that he was not considering moving the city’s quarantine status to general community quarantine (GCQ) from modified general community quarantine (MGCQ).
“What we do need will be stricter implementation and monitoring of the adherence to public health measures, each member of society must do their share through discipline,” Loreche said.
As of this writing, Cebu City currently has 1,051 active cases, from 101 on Christmas Day, December 25, last year. This is out of a total of 12,116 cases since the pandemic began.
Cebu province’s cases went up to 7,701 cases after reporting 53 new cases on Wednesday, January 27. This is excluding Mandaue and Lapu Lapu City’s 2,837 COVID-19 cases total. The two cities have 248 and 138 active cases respectively. – Rappler.com
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