Octa Research: ‘Significant’ increase in cases seen in Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, Davao City


SCREENING. File photo of Davao City Airport.

Davao City Government Facebook page

Data from the Octa Research group shows the three cities saw the largest increases in new cases over the past week

Experts studying the coronavirus pandemic in the Philippines have noted a “significant increase” in new cases reported in Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, and Davao City over the past week. 

In its latest report published on Wednesday, May 19, the Octa Research group said the three cities were among the top 16 areas reporting the highest number of cases outside Metro Manila, the epicenter of the Philippines’ pandemic.

The three cities, while occupying varying spots in the top 16 areas registering a high number of new cases, saw the largest increase in cases in recent days. 

Data from Octa showed Iloilo City posting a 99% increase in cases with 58 cases reported from May 12 to 18; Cagayan de Oro reporting 94 new cases in the past week, up 52% from the previous week; and Davao city reporting 61 new cases, up 36% from the previous week. (Editor’s Note: An earlier version of this report listed the increase in new cases in Iloilo City, Davao City, and Cagayan de Oro as being reported from May 11 to 17. Dr. Guido David of Octa Research clarified this was from May 12 to 18.)

Zamboanga City, meanwhile, still reported the highest number of new COVID-19 cases over the past week, though its increase in the number of infections (4%) was lower than those observed in Cagayan de Oro, Iloilo City, and Davao City. 

In a separate briefing, the Department of Health earlier said it was monitoring an increase in cases in Visayas and Mindanao. “The rise in the number of (COVID-19) cases is not that fast but there is an increase nonetheless,” Dr. Alethea de Guzman of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau said in a press briefing.

De Guzman earlier said that 10 regions in the country are experiencing rise in COVID-19 cases: Zamboanga Peninsula, Western Visayas, Mimaropa, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen, Bicol, Davao Region, Eastern Visayas, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

NCR situation

Nearly two months since the onset of a deadly surge in Metro Manila, Octa said the capital region had an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 9.91 cases per 100,000 people.

ADAR is the number of new cases in a city or province over a two-week period, divided by the population of the city or province. The higher the ADAR of a place, the higher one’s risk of getting COVID-19.

  • Low risk: ADAR < 1
  • Moderate risk: ADAR 1-7
  • High risk: ADAR > 7

In ‘NCR Plus’ bubble or Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, Laguna, Quezon, the group said “most LGUs (local government units) are on a downward trend in new cases.” 

Meanwhile, the seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases in the country was at 5,832 – 11% lower than the previous week. 

On Wednesday, the Philippines tallied 4,700 new coronavirus cases, raising the total number of confirmed cases to 1,159,071. Of the total cases, 49,951 are active while 19,507 have died due to the disease. – Sofia Tomacruz/