Experts studying the coronavirus pandemic in the country urged the government to extend the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in virus epicenter Metro Manila and surrounding provinces or “NCR Plus” for at least a week.

In its report released on Tuesday, April 27, the Octa Research team said that extending MECQ in the capital region, Rizal, Cavite, Bulacan, and Laguna would “allow the ongoing decrease in daily case numbers to stabilize.”

Octa said that the current downward trend in COVID-19 cases is “uneven” among local government units in “NCR Plus.”

“Some LGUs have sustained decreases in numbers. Others do not. Our concern is that a premature return to GCQ would trigger spikes in some LGUs that would overflow into adjacent cities and municipalities,” Octa said.

The Octa team said that one more week of MECQ would “force down” the reproduction number (R) –  the number of people that one COVID-19 positive case can infect – to decongest hospitals more quickly.

“At the current reproduction number, R=0.9, we forecast that hospital COVID-19 bed occupancy will not drop to pre-surge numbers until sometime in June,” they said.

“If we can attain an R=0.8, we forecast that hospital occupancy will drop to pre-surge levels by the third week of May,” Octa added.

Prepare the system

The Octa team also noted that one more week of MECQ in the “NCR Plus” bubble would would give the national government enough time to enhance its contact tracing capacity.

“Daily cases remain high, hindering our capacity to trace all close contacts adequately. An additional week will allow the national government and our LGUs to complete hiring and training the 25,000+ additional contact tracers for the ‘NCR Plus’ bubble,” Octa said.

Aside from this, the government would also have enough time to complete the construction of quarantine and isolation facilities.

“The second surge has confirmed reports that the variants are more transmissible within households. Therefore, we will need our additional quarantine and isolation facilities to quickly separate infected persons from their families,” the experts said.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said on Monday, April 26, that he supports a proposal to extend MECQ in “NCR Plus,” as this would help decongest hospitals in areas included in the bubble.

“NCR Plus” is under MECQ until Friday, April 30. President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to decide on the quarantine classifications on Wednesday, April 28. – Rappler.com

Read this two-part series on the COVID-19 surge in the country:

• PART 1: Philippines’ COVID-19 surge tears through families
• PART 2: Doctors plead with gov’t: ‘We can’t fight this virus with antiquated methods’