UNA to LP: It ain’t over. Remember 2010?

MANILA, Philippines – “Huwag mayabang. Hindi pa tapos ang eleksyon.”

The opposition United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) warned the administration against pre-maturely celebrating after a Pulse Asia survey showed an 11-5 combination for Team PNoy candidates.

In a press statement on Wednesday, May 1, UNA campaign manager Navotas Rep Tobias “Toby” Tiangco pointed to a 2010 press release where then Liberal Party (LP) vice presidential bet Mar Roxas claimed victory based on the results of a Pulse Asia survey.

In Roxas’s April 29, 2010 statement, he said, “I am happy that Noynoy Aquino and I will become the next president and vice president of this country.”

The opposition’s founder, Jejomar Binay, instead emerged as winner in the vice presidential race.

UNA attached Roxas’s press release in its statement. Tiangco then responded to Team PNoy’s pronouncements hailing the survey results. He said the race is “everybody’s ballgame” with the polls still 12 days away.

“We are again amazed to see Sen Franklin Drilon and the rest of LP celebrating their victory based on the surveys. Haven’t they learned their lesson in 2010?”

“Huwag mayabang. Hindi pa tapos ang eleksyon. What is clear is that there will be no 12-0. Kaya kapag wala pa ring tigil si Drilon sa 12-0 niya, talagang magdududa na kami at kakabahan,” Tiangco added, insinuating that the administration might be cooking up cheating operations.

(Don’t be arrogant. The elections are not yet over. So if Drilon does not stop with his 12-0, we will really start doubting and getting nervous.)

Local machinery, bailiwicks

Tiangco issued the statement after Team PNoy spokespersons reacted to the Pulse Asia survey by saying, “It could all be over but the shouting.”

In the April Pulse Asia survey released Tuesday, only UNA’s San Juan Rep JV Ejercito, Binay’s daughter Nancy, resigned Sen Juan Miguel Zubiri, Sen Gregorio Honasan II, and Cagayan Rep Jack Enrile made it to the list of 16 bets with a statistical chance of winning.

In an interview in Antique on Tuesday, Binay also recalled his 2010 experience while saying that UNA can muster a 9-3 combination or even more seats.

“Ah 9-3? Akala ko ba 12-0 ang sinasabi ni Sen Drilon? Walang diperensya iyon. Bukas makalawa magiging 8-4 or 7-5, baka 7-6,” Binay said. (9-3? I thought Sen Drilon was saying 12-0? There’s no difference. Tomorrow, it can be 8-4, 7-5 or maybe even 7-6.)

Binay said “accurate” surveys in 2010 reflected his victory.  

“Mahusay ho kami mag-assess. ‘Yung last election namin noong 2010, alam namin na mananalo ako. Ang magiging lamang ko is no less than 500,000 but no more than one million. Ang margin of error ng aming computation is 30,000. I won by 726,000 [votes]. So ‘yun ang tamang survey.”

(We are good in assessing surveys. In the last election, we knew I will win. My lead will be no less than 50,000 but no more than one million. The margin of error by our computation is 30,000. I won by 726,000 votes. So that is the correct survey.)

For UNA, Binay said his observation is that whether he visits Zamboanga, Iloilo, Bicol, Cebu or other parts of the Philippines, the alliance enjoys strong support.

He cited the areas where he believes UNA is strong.

“Northern Luzon, more or less the Solid North, Region 2, we will win. I just came from Bicol, how can there be 12-0, the newspapers say Gov [Joey] Salceda will support 5 UNA candidates? I came from Zamboanga, I cannot think how we can possibly lose in Mindanao.”

He went on. “We will definitely not lose by 12-0. In Iloilo, our candidates are so strong. We have future Gov [Ferjenel] Biron so how can we lose here? The last time I was here, it was 12-0. Suntok sa buwan na ho iyan.” (That’s impossible)

Salceda though has denied supporting UNA, saying he is working for a 10-2 combination in favor of Team PNoy. 

‘They will be in for a surprise’

Besides the areas UNA claims as bailiwicks, Tiangco said the coalition is banking on the support of its local leaders and the machineries of the parties it considers as partners – Binay’s Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), Estrada’s Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), the Nationalist People’s Coalition and local party affiliates.

“Surveys did not factor in the broad support UNA enjoys in the local level. This includes our allies and members of LP who have expressed support for us,” Tiangco said.

He added, “Sa May 13 makikita ang resulta at doon tayo magkakaalaman – basta’t malinis ang eleksyon. Dahil kapag may pandaraya, panloloko at pananakot, tuluyan nang mawawala ang tiwala ng tao sa daang matuwid.”

(On May 13, we will see the results and get the real score, as long as the elections are clean. When there is cheating, fraud and intimidation, people will continue to lose their trust in the straight and narrow path.)

Binay also said he does not see any connection between the drop in his public satisfaction rating in a Social Weather Stations (SWS) poll and the decline of Nancy in the Pulse Asia survey.

The Vice President’s net satisfaction rating dropped 8 points in the SWS poll conducted from March 19 to 22. Comparing it to a Pulse Asia poll, the Office of the Vice President has described the SWS survey as “puzzling.”

As for Nancy, her score plunged 5 percentage points in the Pulse Asia April senatorial survey. She ranked 5^th-11^th.

Binay said of Nancy’s standing, “Ngayon pinalalabas nila number 5-11 but there was an emphasis on 11 but actually ang numeric kuwan noon is also 5-11.” (They are making it appear as if she is in 11^th place, emphasis on 11 but the numeric ranking is also 5-11) – Rappler.com