Philippine economy

Did Grace Poe sway voters after the Cebu debate?

Rappler.com

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Did Grace Poe sway voters after the Cebu debate?

Arnold Almacen

Of the 35% who voted for Poe in the March 22 mobile survey, 25% also voted for her before the presidential debate in Cebu

MANILA, Philippines – How did the second presidential debate held in Cebu last March 20 affect voter preferences?

If it’s any indication, the Bilang Pilipino SWS (Social Weather Stations) Mobile Survey of March 22, 2016 showed that of the 35% who said they preferred Senator Grace Poe as president, 25% also voted for her before the debate, while 2% were former supporters of Vice President Jejomar Binay.

In another SWS mobile survey on March 21, or a day after the Cebu debate, respondents said Poe was the best during the debate. She got a 39% approval rating in that immediate poll.

Among those who said they preferred Poe as president in the March 22 mobile survey, 2% were former Roxas voters, and another 2% were former followers of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. Only 1% were former voters of Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago.

One percent used to be undecided but were swayed to vote for Poe, while 3% did not respond to the March 18 mobile survey.

In the March 22 survey, Poe got a 35% presidential preference rating compared to Duterte’s 26%. Binay got 18% compared to Roxas’ 17%, while Santiago got 2%. The “undecided/don’t know” got 1%. In the earlier March 18 survey before the debate, Poe got 33%, Duterte 24%, Binay 20%, Roxas 18%, and Santiago 3%.

According to SWS, the March 22 survey had sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±7% in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Methods

The survey was described as a “pioneering project to rapidly survey opinions from a random national sample of voters, deliberately equipped with mobile phones.” It used a nationally representative sample of 1,200 validated voters, meaning, they are registered and with biometrics.

The sample was drawn using standard SWS sampling procedures. They were interviewed face-to-face from March 8-11, 2016 to become the panel for the mobile survey.

The voters were invited and agreed to be members of a panel of respondents to receive and reply to survey questions using mobile phones provided to them for free.

Solid Duterte 

Among those who said in the March 22 survey that they preferred Duterte, 19% were “solid Duterte since March 18.”

Two percent switched from Poe, 2% switched from Binay, 1% switched from Roxas, and 0.3% switched from Santiago.

Less than 1% used to be undecided, while 3% did not respond to the March 18 mobile poll.

Binay, Roxas converts

Of the 18% who wanted Binay, 15% were core Binay followers since March 18. Only 1% switched from Poe, 0.3% switched from Duterte, 0.2% from Santiago, and 0.1% from Roxas. None used to be undecided, while 2% did not respond to the March 18 mobile survey.

Of the 17% who chose Roxas in the March 22 survey, 14% were “solid Roxas” since March 18. Only 1% were converted from Poe voters, 0.2% switched from Duterte, and 0.1% moved over from Binay.

A marginal 0.3% used to be undecided, while 2% did not respond to the earlier suvey. – Rappler.com

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