MANILA, Philippines – If the May 13 elections were held a week earlier, only 9 party-list groups would get the support of 2% of Filipino voters, according to the results of the final preelection survey of Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated released on Saturday, May 11.

The survey was held among 1,800 adult respondents from May 3 to 6.

“In the elections for party-list representatives, among the 134 party-list groups accredited by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for the May 2019 polls, only 9 have the support of at least 2.0% of Filipino registered voters who have a preferred party-list group,” Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said in a statement.

He said the “probable winners” would get at least one seat in the House of Representatives during the first round of seat allocation as provided for in the February 17, 2017 resolution issued by the Supreme Court.

Anti-Crime and Terrorism Community Involvement and Support (ACT-CIS) led the pack of 134 party-list groups vying for House seats in the May survey, with a voter preference of 10.6%. (LIST: Party-list groups seeking to join 2019 polls)

ACT-CIS’ voter preference jumped from 1.94% in March, to 4.67% in April, and then hit double-digit voter preference in early May.

Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte and radio personality Raffy Tulfo, the husband of ACT-CIS second nominee Jocelyn Tulfo, had been campaigning for group.

Erwin Tulfo has been on the campaign posters of ACT-CIS. (READ: News anchor Erwin Tulfo declared persona non grata in Dapitan)

AKO Bicol retained second place at 6.72%, followed by Bayan Muna at 6.07%.

Bayan Muna had topped the March and April Pulse Asia surveys, and though it was ranked third in the final pre-election poll, it remained among the top party-list groups preferred by voters despite repeated attacks by the Duterte administration on leftist groups.

Sara herself had campaigned against the election of party-list groups in the Makabayan bloc, which Bayan Muna is part of.

Pulse Asia said ACT-CIS, AKO Bicol, and Bayan Muna may all get the maximum of 3 seats if the elections were held during the polling period.

These are the 9 party-list groups:

• ACT-CIS – 10.6%
• AKO Bicol – 6.72%
• Bayan Muna – 6.07%
• Citizens’ Battle Against Corruption (CIBAC) – 3.68%
• One Patriotic Coalition of Marginalized Nationals (1PACMAN) – 3.50%
• Coalition of Associations of Senior Citizens in the Philippines, Inc (Senior Citizens) – 2.77%
• Alyansa ng mga Mamayang Probinsyano (Ang Probinsyano) – 2.72%
• An Waray – 2.43%
• Magkakasama sa Sakahan, Kaunlaran (Magsasaka) – 2.20%

CIBAC, 1PACMAN, Senior Citizens, and An Waray were represented in the House in 2016.

Ang Probinsyano got famous stars Coco Martin and Yassi Pressman – the protagonists of long-running ABS-CBN show FPJ’s Ang Probinsyano – to campaign for them.

If elections were held during the survey period, the following groups would likely get one seat each:

• Tindog Sinirangan
• Probinsyano Ako
• Abante Mindanao, Inc (Abamin)
• Buhay Hayaan Yumabong (Buhay)
• Kalinga-Advocacy for Social Empowerment and Nation-building through Easing Poverty (Kalinga)
• Barangay Health Wellness (BHW)
• Gabriela’s Women’s Party (Gabriela)
• Advocacy for Teacher Empower through Action Cooperation and Harmoney towards Education Reform (A Teacher)
• Puwersang Bayaning Atleta (PBA)
• Ako Bisaya
• Construction Workers Solidarity (CSW)
• LPG Marketers Associations (LPGMA)
• Kabalikat ng Mamamayan (Kabayan)
• Cooperative NATCCO Network (COOP-NATCCO)
• Anak Mindanao (Amin)
• Trade Union Congress Party (TUCP)
• Manila Teachers’ Savings and Loan Association Inc (Manila Teachers’)
• Abang Lingkod
• Magdalo para sa Pilipino (Magdalo)
• Abono
• Agricultural Sector Alliance of the Philippines (AGAP)
• Association of the Philippines Electric Cooperations (APEC)
• Una ang Edukasyon (1-Ang Edukasyon)
• National Association for the Electricity Consumers for Reforms (Kontra Brownout Party-List)
• Duty to Energize the Republic Through Enlightenment of the Youth Sectoral Party-List Organization (Duterte Youth)
• Anakpawis
• Bagong Henerasyon (BH)
• Kilusang Maypagasa (Magpagasa)
• OFW Family Club Inc
• Talino at Galing ng Pinoy (Aling Entrep)
• Dumper Philippines Taxi Drivers Association, Inc (Dumper PTDA)
• Rural Electronic Consumers and Beneficiaries of Development and Advancement, Inc (Recoboda)

Pulse Asia said that only 54 of the maximum 59 seats for party-list representatives may be filled if the polls happened from May 3 to 6.

LISTEN: #PHVote podcast: Paano ang pagboto sa party list?

The nationwide survey has a ± 2.3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic a reas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ± 6.8 % for Metro Manila, ± 3.5% for the rest of Luzon, ± 5. 1 % for Visayas and ± 4. 8 % for Mindanao. 

During the survey period, among the major issues were the surfacing of Peter Joemel Advincula or “Bikoy” who claimed to be the person behind the “Ang Totoong Narcolist” videos that linked allies and members of the family of President Rodrigo Duterte to the illegal drugs trade. (READ: TIMELINE: The ‘Bikoy’ controversy)

It was also around this time that webmaster Rodel Jayme was charged with inciting to sedition in relation to the Bikoy videos.

Between the last two survey periods, President Rodrigo Duterte went on his fourth visit to China, and Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr came under fire for his seeming dismissive tweets on Chinese fishermen’s illegal harvest of endangered giant claims in Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) off the coast of Zambales, in the West Philippine Sea. – Rappler.com