Low pressure area out of PAR, but rain still seen in Mindanao

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MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) that forecasters have been monitoring moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday, April 8, but its trough or extension will still bring some rain.

In a briefing past 5 pm on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is now 465 kilometers southeast of Davao City, already outside PAR.

But the LPA’s trough is expected to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms to Mindanao. Flash floods are possible if the thunderstorms become severe. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

PAGASA earlier said the LPA is unlikely to become a tropical depression.

The Philippines gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year, but PAGASA expects only 14 to 18 in 2019 due to El Niño. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

So far, the Philippines has had 3 tropical cyclones this year:

• Tropical Depression Amang – January
• Tropical Depression Betty – February
• Tropical Depression Chedeng – March

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from April to September:

• April – 0 or 1
• May – 1 or 2
• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 or 3
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 to 4

Meanwhile, the easterlies or warm winds coming from the Pacific Ocean will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms to the Visayas, Masbate, Sorsogon, Albay, and Catanduanes. Severe thunderstorms may trigger flash floods, too.

The easterlies will also cause isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms in Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and the rest of Bicol.

The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, will generally enjoy clear skies, with possibly a few thunderstorms.

PAGASA declared the start of the dry season last March 22. – Rappler.com