Tropical Depression Marilyn enters PAR

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MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression that forecasters have been monitoring entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 9:30 am on Thursday, September 12. It has been given the local name Marilyn.

In a bulletin issued 11 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tropical Depression Marilyn is already 1,355 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.

It is moving northwest at 25 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The tropical depression still has maximum winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But it is expected to intensify into a tropical storm while inside PAR.

There are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals and Marilyn is unlikely to make landfall.

But its trough or extension has been bringing rain to parts of the country.

Below is the latest on the expected rainfall from Marilyn’s trough:

Thursday morning, September 12, to Friday morning, September 13

Light to moderate rain, with intermittent heavy rainshowers

most of Luzon, including Metro Manila
Visayas
Zamboanga Peninsula
Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao
Northern Mindanao
Soccsksargen

Residents of those areas should watch out for possible flash floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Travel is also risky, especially for small seacraft, in the central and eastern seaboards of the Visayas and the northern, eastern, and southern seaboards of Mindanao.

Based on Marilyn’s latest forecast track, it will leave PAR on Sunday, September 15.

Forecast track of Tropical Depression Marilyn as of September 12, 2019, 11 am. Image from PAGASA

Marilyn is the Philippines’ 13th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 3rd in September. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from September to December:

September – 2 to 4
October – 2 or 3
November – 1 or 2
December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.