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MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area (LPA) outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) developed into a tropical depression.

In a briefing past 4 am on Friday, September 27, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the tropical depression is 1,685 kilometers east of the Visayas.

“Sa kasalukuyan, mababa pa rin ang tsansa na ito ay mag-landfall o tumama sa anumang bahagi ng ating Philippine landmass, ngunit maaaring itong lumapit dito sa may dulong bahagi ng Hilagang Luzon,” said PAGASA Weather Specialist Ana Clauren.

(At the moment, it only has a slim chance of making landfall or hitting any part of Philippine landmass, but it might come near extreme Northern Luzon.)

Clauren said the tropical depression could enter PAR by Saturday morning, September 28.

If it does, it would be given the local name Onyok. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

Clauren added that the tropical depression might still intensify, since it remains over the Pacific Ocean. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

The Philippines has had 14 tropical cyclones in 2019, with 4 of those in September.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from September to December:

• September – 2 to 4
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

In the meantime, PAGASA said the northeasterly surface windflow is prevailing over Northern Luzon on Friday. It will bring rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms to:

• Cagayan Valley
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Aurora

The rest of the country will only have isolated rainshowers on Friday.

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com