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MANILA, Philippines – The tropical depression that forecasters have been monitoring entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 8 am on Tuesday, November 5. It has been given the local name Quiel.

In a bulletin issued 11 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Tropical Depression Quiel is 540 kilometers west southwest of Iba, Zambales.

It is moving east northeast at a slow 10 kilometers per hour (km/h).

The tropical depression still has maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. But PAGASA said it may intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Quiel is unlikely to make landfall in the country and there are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals.

But Quiel’s trough or extension, along with the frontal system, will bring rain. PAGASA earlier explained that the frontal system is the boundary between the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan and warm air coming from the east.

Below is the latest on the expected rainfall on Tuesday until Wednesday morning, November 6.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain

• Northern Luzon
• Zambales
• Bataan

Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms

• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Palawan

PAGASA advised residents of those areas to stay on alert for possible flash floods and landslides.

Travel is also risky, especially for small vessels, in the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western seaboard of Southern Luzon.

Based on Quiel’s latest forecast track, it might leave PAR on Friday, November 8.

Quiel is the Philippines’ 17th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 1st in November. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

Meanwhile, Halong, the severe tropical storm outside PAR, has since intensified into a typhoon.

Typhoon Halong now has maximum winds of 155 km/h from the previous 140 km/h and gustiness of up to 190 km/h from the previous 170 km/h.

The typhoon is 3,110 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon, moving northwest at 10 km/h. It remains unlikely to enter PAR, but is nonetheless being monitored.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:

• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com