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MANILA, Philippines – A low pressure area (LPA) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday, November 11.

In a bulletin issued 5 pm on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is now 1,005 kilometers east of Virac, Catanduanes.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Aldczar Aurelio said the LPA might develop into a tropical depression either on Tuesday, November 12, or Wednesday, November 13.

If it becomes a tropical depression, it would be given the local name Ramon. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

In the next 24 hours, PAGASA already expects the trough or extension of the LPA to trigger scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in the following areas:

• Bicol
• Quezon
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Marinduque
• Romblon
• Visayas
• Northern Mindanao
• Caraga
• Davao Region

PAGASA warned that flash floods and landslides are possible if the thunderstorms become severe. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Meanwhile, the northeast monsoon or hanging amihan is affecting Northern Luzon and Central Luzon until Tuesday.

There will be light rain from the northeast monsoon in these areas:

• Ilocos Region
• Cordillera Administrative Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon

The rest of the country, not affected by either the LPA’s trough or the northeast monsoon, will have generally fair weather on Tuesday. There may only be isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.

The Philippines has had 17 tropical cyclones in 2019, with one in November, so far – Typhoon Quiel (Nakri), which did not make landfall but caused rain in parts of Luzon.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:

• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com