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MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility could develop into a tropical depression on Thursday, June 11.

In a bulletin issued 4 am on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is already 50 kilometers east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or 245 kilometers north northwest of Borongan City, Eastern Samar.

“Anumang oras ngayong araw ay posible na ngang maging isang ganap na bagyo ang nasabing low pressure area (Anytime today, the low pressure area could become a tropical cyclone),” said PAGASA Weather Specialist Raymond Ordinario in an online advisory past 5 am.

If the LPA becomes a tropical depression, it would be the Philippines’ second tropical cyclone for 2020 and would be given the local name Butchoy. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)

PAGASA also said the southwesterly windflow or winds from the southwest will affect Palawan, Western Visayas, and Mindanao on Thursday.

The LPA and the southwesterly windflow will both bring rain. PAGASA issued the following rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours:

Scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms

• Metro Manila
• Central Luzon
• Bicol
• Calabarzon
• Mimaropa
• Isabela
• Visayas

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms

• rest of Cagayan Valley
• Mindanao

PAGASA warned of possible flash floods or landslides in those areas, especially during periods of moderate to heavy rain. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

So far, the Philippines has had one tropical cyclone in 2020 – Typhoon Ambo (Vongfong) last May. The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones per year.

In PAGASA’s climate outlook, it gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones in the next 6 months:

• June – 1 or 2
• July – 2 to 4
• August – 2 or 3
• September – 2 or 3
• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2

The state weather bureau is expected to declare the onset of the southwest monsoon or hanging habagat and the start of the rainy season in June. – Rappler.com