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MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau spotted a low pressure area (LPA) along the boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

In a briefing at 4 pm on Tuesday, October 15, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the LPA is 1,160 kilometers east northeast of the Visayas.

According to PAGASA Weather Specialist Ana Clauren, the LPA only has a slim chance of developing into a tropical depression.

But Clauren said the LPA could go near extreme Northern Luzon and possibly bring rain in the coming days. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

In the meantime, the northeasterly surface windflow is affecting Luzon within the next 24 hours. It could bring light rain to Batanes and Cagayan in particular, but PAGASA said there will be “no significant impact.”

In Mindanao and in parts of the Visayas, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is the prevailing system.

PAGASA defines the ITCZ as a “series of low pressure areas brought about by converging northeast and southeast winds that cause thunderstorms and rainshowers.”

The ITCZ is expected to trigger scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Mindanao, Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, and Negros Occidental.

The rest of the country will have generally fair weather, with just isolated rainshowers or localized thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon or evening.

The Philippines has had 15 tropical cyclones in 2019, with none yet in October. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones from October to December:

• October – 2 or 3
• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com