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MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Quiel (Nakri) maintained its strength while remaining almost stationary over the West Philippine Sea on Thursday evening, November 7.

In a bulletin issued 11 pm on Thursday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Quiel is 375 kilometers west northwest of Coron, Palawan, hardly moving.

It maintained its strength from Thursday afternoon, with maximum winds of 110 kilometers per hour (km/h) and gustiness of up to 135 km/h.

But PAGASA said Quiel could intensify into a typhoon within 24 hours. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Quiel remains unlikely to make landfall in the country and there are no areas under tropical cyclone wind signals.

But rain caused by the severe tropical storm will persist in some areas in Luzon and the Visayas on Friday, November 8. Here is the latest on the expected rainfall:

Light to moderate rain with occasionally heavy rain

• Cagayan, including Babuyan Group of Islands
• Apayao

Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain

• Kalinga
• Ilocos Norte
• Palawan
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Aklan
• Antique

Flash floods and landslides remain possible.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said in a separate statement on Thursday that the Mines and Geosciences Bureau “assessed 1,015 barangays with high to very high susceptibility to rain-induced flooding and at least 620 also with high and very high susceptibility to rain-induced landslides.”

Those barangays, according to the NDRRMC, are in the following:

• Ilocos Region
• Cagayan Valley
• Central Luzon
• Cordillera Administrative Region

Travel also remains risky, especially for small vessels, in the northern and western seaboards of Luzon.

Based on Quiel’s latest forecast track, it might leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) either on Friday night or early Saturday, November 9.

Quiel is the Philippines’ 17th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 1st in November. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor Typhoon Halong outside PAR, at 3,075 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon.

Halong is gradually weakening and is still not expected to enter PAR. It now has maximum winds of 150 km/h and gustiness of up to 185 km/h.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:

• November – 1 or 2
• December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com