Aside from Tropical Storm Ramon, PAGASA spots new LPA

Acor Arceo
Aside from Tropical Storm Ramon, PAGASA spots new LPA
A low pressure area forms outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, while Tropical Storm Ramon (Kalmaegi) heads for Northern Luzon

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MANILA, Philippines – The state weather bureau is now monitoring both Tropical Storm Ramon (Kalmaegi) inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and a new low pressure area (LPA) that formed outside.

In a briefing past 11 am on Sunday, November 17, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ramon is already 395 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.

It is moving north northwest toward Northern Luzon at 10 kilometers per hour (km/h), still slow.

Ramon continues to have maximum winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

Below is the latest list of areas under a tropical cyclone wind signal, with the entire provinces of Cagayan and Isabela already covered. Previously, only the eastern portions of these provinces were included.

Signal No. 1 (winds of 30 km/h to 60 km/h)

  • Cagayan, including Babuyan Island
  • Isabela
  • northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

Ramon will continue to bring rain in the next two days.

Sunday, November 17

  • Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
    • eastern part of Cagayan
    • eastern part of Isabela

Monday, November 18

  • Light to moderate rain with occasionally heavy rain
    • mainland Cagayan
    • Isabela
    • Apayao
    • Kalinga
    • Ilocos Norte
  • Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
    • Babuyan Group of Islands
    • Abra
    • Ifugao
    • Mountain Province
    • northern part of Aurora
    • Quirino

PAGASA reiterated that Ramon may trigger flash floods and landslides. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Travel also remains risky, especially for small vessels, in the seaboards of areas under Signal No. 1, the seaboards of Northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon.

Based on Ramon’s latest forecast track, it might make landfall in Cagayan between Monday evening, November 18, and the early hours of Tuesday, November 19.

After hitting land, the tropical storm is projected to weaken into a tropical depression and then eventually into an LPA. It could exit PAR as an LPA by Thursday, November 21.

Forecast track of Tropical Storm Ramon (Kalmaegi) as of November 17, 2019, 11 am. Image from PAGASA

Ramon is the Philippines’ 18th tropical cyclone for 2019, and the 2nd for November.

Meanwhile, the new LPA located outside PAR is 2,420 kilometers east of the Visayas. It could enter PAR on Tuesday.

PAGASA Weather Specialist Benison Estareja also said the LPA could become a tropical depression in the coming days. If it becomes a tropical depression and enters PAR, it would be given the local name Sarah. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

But Estareja clarified that there is no truth to rumors being spread online that the LPA will become a super typhoon.

“Considered as fake news at hindi po galing ito sa PAGASA (That’s considered as fake news and it did not come from PAGASA),” he said.

The country gets an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually, but since 2019 is an El Niño year, only 14 to 18 tropical cyclones are expected.

Below is the estimated number of tropical cyclones for the last two months of 2019:

  • November – 1 or 2
  • December – 0 or 1

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. –

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.