Ursula may become typhoon before Eastern Samar landfall

Acor Arceo
Ursula may become typhoon before Eastern Samar landfall
Hours before its expected landfall on Christmas Eve, Severe Tropical Storm Ursula (Phanfone) is still gaining strength

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MANILA, Philippines – Severe Tropical Storm Ursula (Phanfone) continued to intensify late Tuesday morning, December 24, as it threatened the region of Eastern Visayas.

In a briefing past 11 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Ursula now has maximum winds of 110 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 100 km/h and gustiness of up to 135 km/h from the previous 125 km/h.

The severe tropical storm is already 185 kilometers east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. But it slowed down, now moving west at 20 km/h from the previous 30 km/h.

Ursula is expected to make landfall in Eastern Samar on Tuesday afternoon or early evening, possibly between 5 pm and 9 pm. It could strengthen into a typhoon before hitting land, warned PAGASA.

Below is the latest list of areas where tropical cyclone wind signals are raised.

Signal No. 2 (winds of 61 km/h to 120 km/h)

  • southern part of Quezon (Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco)
  • Marinduque
  • eastern part of Oriental Mindoro (Socorro, Pola, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong, Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao)
  • southern part of Occidental Mindoro (Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay)
  • Romblon
  • Albay
  • Sorsogon
  • Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands
  • Northern Samar
  • Eastern Samar
  • Samar
  • Leyte
  • Biliran
  • extreme northern part of Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands (Bantayan, Madridejos, Santa Fe, Daanbantayan, Medellin, San Remigio, Bogo City, Tabogon, Tabuelan, Borbon, San Francisco, Poro, Tudela, Pilar)
  • northeastern part of Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad, San Dionisio, Sara, Concepcion, Lemery, Ajuy)
  • northern part of Antique (Libertad, Pandan, Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao)
  • Capiz
  • Aklan

Signal No. 1 (winds of 30 km/h to 60 km/h)

  • Bulacan
  • Bataan
  • Metro Manila
  • Rizal
  • Cavite
  • rest of Quezon
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • Camarines Sur
  • Camarines Norte
  • Catanduanes
  • rest of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
  • rest of Oriental Mindoro
  • northern Palawan (Linapacan, El Nido, Taytay, Araceli, Dumaran, San Vicente, Roxas)
  • Calamian Islands
  • Cuyo Islands
  • Southern Leyte
  • rest of northern part of Cebu (Carmen, Asturias, Tuburan, Catmon, Sogod)
  • central part of Cebu (Aloguinsan, Carcar City, Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Naga City, Toledo City, Minglanilla, Balamban, Talisay City, Cebu City, Cordova, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao City)
  • northeastern part of Bohol (Inabanga, Danao, Dagohoy, Pilar, Guindulman, Anda, Candijay, Alicia, Buenavista, Jetafe, Talibon, Trinidad, Bien Unido, San Miguel, Ubay, Mabini, President Carlos P Garcia)
  • rest of Antique
  • rest of Iloilo
  • Guimaras
  • northern part of Negros Occidental (Bacolod City, Bago City, Cadiz City, Calatrava, Enrique B Magalona, Escalante City, La Carlota City, La Castellana, Manapla, Moises Padilla, Binalbagan, Hinigaran, Isabela, Murcia, Pontevedra, Pulupandan, Sagay City, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City, San Enrique, Silay City, Talisay City, Toboso, Valladolid, Victorias City)
  • northern part of Negros Oriental (Canlaon City, Guihulngan City, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Vallehermoso)
  • Dinagat Islands
  • Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

PAGASA said moderate to strong winds will begin affecting the northeastern part of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas on Tuesday; Bicol and parts of Central Visayas on Tuesday afternoon or evening; Calabarzon as well as parts of Mimaropa and Western Visayas on Wednesday morning, December 25, Christmas Day; and Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Bataan on Wednesday morning or afternoon.

“Medium- to high-risk structures may experience light damage,” the state weather bureau said.

Specifically for areas under Signal No. 2 in Eastern Visayas, PAGASA warned of damaging gale- to storm-force winds which may begin to be felt Tuesday afternoon. Such winds would also be felt in Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, and portions of Antique, Iloilo, and the northern part of Cebu by Tuesday evening; and in Marinduque, the southern part of Quezon, and portions of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro on Wednesday morning.

“This may bring light to moderate damage to high-risk structures and at most light damage to medium-risk structures,” said PAGASA. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)

PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Chris Perez said Ursula’s outer rainbands are already extending over Eastern Visayas and Caraga. Rain from the severe tropical storm has begun.

Between Tuesday, December 24, and Wednesday noon, December 25

  • Occasional to frequent heavy rain
    • Dinagat Islands
    • Siargao Island
    • Bucas Grande Island
    • Eastern Visayas
    • Sorsogon
    • Masbate
    • northern and central parts of Cebu
    • northern part of Negros Occidental
    • northern part of Negros Oriental
    • Aklan
    • Antique
    • Capiz
    • Iloilo
    • Guimaras
    • Romblon
  • Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
    • rest of Bicol
    • Quezon
    • Marinduque
    • Oriental Mindoro
    • rest of the Visayas
    • rest of Surigao del Norte

Between Wednesday noon and late evening, December 25

  • Occasional to frequent heavy rain
    • Aklan
    • Antique
    • Capiz
    • Romblon
    • Marinduque
    • Oriental Mindoro
    • Occidental Mindoro
    • Batangas
    • Calamian Islands
  • Light to moderate rain with intermittent heavy rain
    • Cuyo Islands
    • Negros Occidental
    • Negros Oriental
    • Iloilo
    • Guimaras
    • Aurora
    • rest of Calabarzon

There may be flash floods and landslides in areas in Ursula’s path. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)

Starting Tuesday too, rough seas will prevail in the eastern seaboards of the country; Tuesday afternoon or evening in the inland waters of Southern Luzon and the Visayas; and Wednesday afternoon in the western seaboards of Southern Luzon. Travel is risky.

Maritime trips had been canceled as early as Monday, December 23. As of 4 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Coast Guard said it has recorded a total of 16,649 stranded passengers in Bicol, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Southern Tagalog, Northern Mindanao, Western Mindanao, and Southern Visayas.

There are canceled flights for Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

Based on its latest forecast track, Ursula is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday, December 28.

Forecast track of Severe Tropical Storm Ursula (Phanfone) as of December 24, 2019, 11 am. Image from PAGASA

Ursula is the Philippines’ 21st tropical cyclone for 2019, exceeding the yearly average of 20. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2019)

Ursula is also the second tropical cyclone for December, after Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri). PAGASA earlier said it was expecting one or two tropical cyclones during the month.

In December 2018, the Philippines had a deadly tropical cyclone during Christmas – Tropical Depression Usman. It left 156 people dead and 105 others injured in Eastern Visayas, Bicol, and Mimaropa, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season last June 14. – Rappler.com

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Acor Arceo

Acor Arceo is the head of copy and editorial standards at Rappler. Trained in both online and TV newsrooms, Acor ensures consistency in editorial standards across all sections and also supervises Rappler’s coverage of disasters.