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MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Carina began bringing rain to parts of Luzon on Monday morning, July 13, as it continued to approach the extreme northern part of the island region.
In a bulletin issued 11 am on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Carina is now 245 kilometers east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan.
The tropical depression shifted from west to northwest, moving at a slightly slower 15 kilometers per hour (km/h) from the previous 20 km/h.
It maintained its strength, with maximum winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. Carina is not seen to become a tropical storm and might weaken back into a low pressure area on Wednesday, July 15. (READ: FAST FACTS: Tropical cyclones, rainfall advisories)
Signal No. 1 is still raised in these areas:
- Babuyan Islands
- northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita, Buguey, eastern part of Lal-lo, eastern part of Gattaran, eastern part of Baggao)
PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 1 “may experience occasional gusts” due to Carina. (READ: Why is it now called tropical cyclone ‘wind’ – and not ‘warning’ – signals?)
More areas are seeing rain from the tropical depression on Monday as well.
Moderate to heavy rain
- Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Light to moderate rain with at times heavy rain
- Ilocos Region
- Cordillera Administrative Region
- rest of Cagayan Valley
- northern part of Quezon including Polillo Island
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
- Metro Manila
- rest of Central Luzon
- rest of Calabarzon
- Occidental Mindoro
- Oriental Mindoro
- Camarines Norte
PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are possible during periods of heavy or prolonged rainfall.
Within the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas are also expected in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon. Small vessels should not set sail as waves could reach 1.2 to 3.1 meters high.
Based on Carina’s latest forecast track, PAGASA said it is likely to move toward the Luzon Strait, “passing roughly 100 kilometers off the northeastern tip of Luzon,” near the Babuyan Islands and Batanes.
“However, accounting for the forecast track probability cone, a landfall scenario over these areas remains a possibility,” added the state weather bureau.
Carina is the Philippines’ 3rd tropical cyclone for 2020, after Typhoon Ambo (Vongfong) in May and Tropical Storm Butchoy (Nuri) in June.
An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year. Only around half of these make landfall. (READ: LIST: PAGASA’s names for tropical cyclones in 2020)
In PAGASA’s climate outlook, it gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:
- July – 2 to 4
- August – 2 or 3
- September – 2 or 3
- October – 2 or 3
- November – 1 or 2
- December – 1 or 2
PAGASA declared the start of the rainy season on June 12. – Rappler.com
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